It’s quite fascinating to observe the high-stakes game of political musical chairs currently being played within the Democratic party. Despite attempting a significant reshuffle at the top of their presidential ticket, well-known election historian and statistician, Nate Silver, suggests former President Donald Trump, still claims the upper hand. Silver’s latest projections give Trump a strong 61.3 percent likelihood of retaking the Electoral College, considerably overshadowing Vice President Kamala Harris’ weak 38.1 percent chance.
Despite the unjustified optimism within the Democratic camp following her nomination, it’s crucial to note that Harris is only marginally better positioned than Joe Biden, who had a dismal 26.9 percent chance of victory as per Silver’s forecast before his sudden departure from the race on July 21. It shows a clear lack of faith in the Democratic leadership.
In what seems like a myopic view of reality, certain national polls have Harris trailing Trump by only 0.4 points, a minuscule gap compared to Biden’s failure to close the distance since the tracking began in June. However, remember that these are the very same polls that have woefully miscalculated voter sentiments in the past.
Interestingly, it’s reported that Harris has cornered 44.1 percent of the democratic vote, slightly higher than Biden’s middling figure which lingered between 40 and 41 percent. Yet, let’s not be fooled. Although this appears to be a triumph for Harris, it is essential to remember Biden’s steady drop in popularity was largely the result of his numerous missteps.
Ignoring the cards on the table, Silver’s model optimistically presents Harris with a 53.5% possibility of winning the popular vote, outdoing Trump’s projected 46.5%. It seems history lessons are in short supply these days. The fact remains that the last Republican to acquire the popular vote was not so far ago, courtesy of George W. Bush in 2004.
There’s an uncanny resemblance between Silver’s modeling methodology and the manner in which the FiveThirtyEight election forecast analyses data, which isn’t surprising as he was its founder in 2008. This model creates a ‘snapshot’ of the current race situation based on state and national polls. Despite state polls being significantly more valuable, they’ve been sadly underrepresented in the model’s logic since Biden’s rapid exit.
Seemingly unfazed by the abrupt shift in the Democratic landscape, Silver introduced his revamped election model just last month. Notably, FiveThirtyEight was among the few entities predicting a Biden victory in the 2024 Presidential elections before suspending its forecast post Biden’s unexpected retreat from the race.
What happened next will forever be known as the great Democratic scramble as Biden’s nod of approval towards Harris propelled her to become the ostensibly favored Democratic nominee, causing a minor ripple rather than the expected tidal wave in the 2024 competition. Harris’ approval ratings rose briefly in a few polls following Biden’s endorsement, presenting a facade of unity within the party.
Her new campaign slogan and branding seemed to serve its purpose of enticing Democratic donors, managing to raise approximately $200 million in the week following Biden’s departure. However, one needs to question the stability and sustainability of a campaign whose foundation is built on the unexpected exit of its original forerunner.
With the clock ticking away to election night, less than 100 days away, pollsters are scrambling to align their calculations to the new dynamics. Unfortunately, for them, the parameters of this election are changing as fast as their models.
Harris’ campaign team have quite the challenge on their hands. Silver suggests on X that they’d be wise to veer from the disastrous strategies of the past — specifically, the ill-fated journeys of the Hillary 2016 and Harris 2020 primary campaigns, and most importantly, Biden’s failed aspiration for 2024 presidency.
Silver built a well-recognized name for himself by correctly predicting former President Barack Obama’s 2012 win. However, the gloss of that success was surely dimmed by his meager 2016 forecast that favored Hillary Clinton over Trump.
To pour salt on the wound of that embarrassment, another glaring misjudgement occurred in 2020. Relying on his forecast model, Silver gave Biden an absurdly high 89% chance of victory. And we all know how that story ended.
In sum, Democratic elections have come to be characterized by last-minute ticket changes, inflated forecasts, and failed attempts to mimic historical wins. While they continue to choose candidates who can’t resonate with the average American, their chances of turning the tide continue to look bleak.
Contrary to what the Democratic marketing machine would have us believe, it appears that Trump remains the firm favorite among the electorate. This trend is fortified by Silver’s model, despite its past accuracy inadequacies, which continually show Trump to be in pole position.
As election day draws closer, the theater of American politics will undoubtedly provide more twists and turns. Observers should be well-advised not to be swayed by ‘popular votes’ and inflated polls, and instead focus on the wider picture that indicates another Trump victory is more than plausible.
Trump’s Upper Hand Shadows Biden-Harris’ Flailing Position appeared first on Real News Now.
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