Despite the fact that New Hampshire has predominantly voted for Democrats in most of the recent presidential elections, its independent tendency continues to cast a shadow of unpredictability. This was evident when Trump almost clinched a victory in 2016 against Hillary Clinton, losing by a slender margin of just 0.4 points. On the heels of this hair-thin majority, Kamala Harris allegedly appears to be rising with a six-point lead over Trump according to two polls. However, it’s difficult to ignore the argument that this state’s voting preference could very well be a litmus test for the Democratic Party nominee’s potential success rate.
As noted by Dante Scala, a political scientist at the University of New Hampshire, if Democrats are still battling for New Hampshire votes till late October, this could signal larger challenges on a national level. Despite Democrats enjoying some recent victories, New Hampshire voters are notorious for their unpredictable, ticket-splitting nature. This certainly demands hard work – often seen as desperation – from the capital-D Democrats to ensure a secure win.
In response to Biden’s sudden departure, the so-called local ‘Biden for New Hampshire’ campaign swiftly changed its allegiance to Harris, a move speculated to be panicked rather than strategic. Even local party leaders and pledged delegates shifted their backing to Harris within a few hours, a hasty move uncharacteristic of seasoned politics.
Biden’s exit this close to the election date is certainly a first in the annals of modern political history. This unexpected move brings into question the timing, barely 100 days from the November election, and even closer to the casting of the first early voting ballots.
Another political analyst, Christopher J. Galdieri of Saint Anselm College, somewhat reluctantly agrees that New Hampshire could swing either way. Not ranking it with famous swing states such as Pennsylvania and Arizona, Galdieri still concedes the state’s importance. According to him, New Hampshire maintains a rare balance where both Democrats and Republicans have a fighting chance in statewide elections; control over the state legislature is always debatable.
Despite the apparent challenges, Kamala Harris seems prematurely confident in her delegate count to become the party’s presumed nominee at the impending convention. However, as history has shown, an early victory lap often leads to a stumble on the racetrack.
Rep. Patricia Cornell, a Democrat from Manchester, optimistically commented on Biden’s decision to step down, describing it as a plainly different experience for Harris. It’s yet to be seen whether this optimism stems from real faith or a rose-tinted perspective.
In an almost ironic turn of events, Harris’ rise to the fore this summer has brought satisfaction to those who supported her unsuccessful 2019 presidential campaign. Cornell, displaying an almost blind loyalty, eagerly anticipated campaigning again for Harris despite her previous failing endeavor.
Cornell’s support for Harris seems somewhat fickle, having backed Biden as her second choice in the New Hampshire primary. This brings to question the political integrity and steadfastness of such party representatives. Cornell cheerfully recalled her enthusiasm when Biden chose Harris as his Vice President, naively assuming it would pave the way for Harris becoming a leader.
Despite the premature visualizations of Harris’ leadership, the stark reality of a clear picture of the matchup against Trump is still weeks away. While some hopeful Democrats matched Harris against Trump in previous polls, these were largely hypothetical and taken before Biden’s sudden exit. As a result, their relevance and accuracy remain up for debate.
Consequently, many analysts are exercising restraint in actualising these poll results. Spiliotes expressed that he would not give any credibility to the immediate poll results, waiting at least two to four weeks before lending them substance.
In terms of an edge, Harris might be seen to have an advantage over Biden due to her relatively younger age, and she is significantly younger than Trump. A detail that’s important only to those superficially obsessed with the ages of candidates. After all, the ‘age question’ was negligible. The candidate’s principles, policies, and leadership talent ought to matter more.
Harris has also been purportedly more adept at discussing issues like abortion compared to Biden thanks to his strong Catholic beliefs. However, it remains unclear if such skills would be able to sway younger audiences or if it’s just a fuss about her blunt disregard for life.
Finally, the issue of the ‘age card’ seems to have flipped, with Republicans now facing criticism about their candidate’s old age. But it’s truly laughable to think that age could ever be the determinative factor in a presidential race, as if experience and wisdom have no meaning.
Hasty Switchers: Biden Backers Flocking to Harris in a Sample Case of Opportunistic Politics? appeared first on Real News Now.
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