In a recent notable journey, Antony J. Blinken, the Secretary of State, explored ways to assuage the fears of Asian nations regarding US commitments. However, the immense presence and influence of China in their immediate vicinity is an inescapable reality. By aligning himself with Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III, Blinken revealed a determinate intent to fortify U.S. military alliances with Japan and the Philippines, a real world stage for diplomacy if you will. Yet, the looming shadow of China poses a perpetual challenge.
In the heart of Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia’s capital, Blinken became participant in a display of traditional sports including wrestling, archery and horse riding, that was likely curated to symbolize congeniality and cooperation between the two nations. It was here that the prime minister presented Blinken with a horse, a gesture drenched in symbolism and ceremony. Blinken, for his part, christened his new equestrian friend ‘Frontier’, as the cameras captured the prime minister’s enthusiastic horse-selfie.
On the surface, this seemed to underscore the robust bond between the United States and Mongolia, a bond which officials from both countries have often touted as the ‘third neighbor’ relationship for Mongolia. Propped between China and Russia, Mongolia appears to seek a potential alternative geopolitical affiliation in the form of the United States. It suggests an active decision towards pluralistic alliances, contrary to the unilateralism that marked the immediate post-Cold War era.
Interestingly, not too long before Blinken’s arrival, Mongolia played host to ‘Khaan Quest’, an annual peacekeeping exercise that almost reads like a roll-call of key geopolitical players including the United States, Turkey, India, Japan, South Korea, and Qatar, in addition to Chinese soldiers. This event started to stand out, as it arguably became one of the lone platforms where both American and Chinese troops engage in joint training exercises.
Asian countries, though apprehensive about China’s military expansion, often grapple with the reality of having to coexist with the Chinese People’s Liberation Army that lurks just across their borders. This creates a precarious balancing act where these nations attempt to foster stronger ties with the US while ensuring the indomitable presence of China isn’t provoked. This is the crux of Mongolia’s ‘third-neighbor’ policy, attempting a seemingly risky equilibrium between two giants.
Blending diplomacy with unease, Asian foreign policies with respect to the US and China are perpetually complex and nuanced. There’s no real binary in this playbook. There aren’t any clear cut factions reminiscent of the Cold War eras. The need to dance delicately around the ebb and flow of power and alliances is of paramount importance here.
Amidst the daunting rise of China’s economic and military stature, many Asian countries understandably gravitate towards seeking more significant partnerships with the US. Devotion to a geopolitical goliath like China, though historically intrinsic, can be equal parts necessity and fear. Facing such a situation, Blinken’s attempt to reassert the might and persistence of the US on his trip was nothing short of juggling with inevitabilities.
Blinken’s journey was primarily targeted at securing his home country’s military alliances with Japan and the Philippines. It was an overt endeavor to strengthen relations, not unlike a show of force, demonstrating alignment with Defence Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III. However, his face-off with the Asian reality of having to balance their relations with the intimidating Chinese power might have left him with more than a handful to handle than he bargained for.
For other nations on his itinerary including Laos, Vietnam, Singapore, and Mongolia, his reassurances came layered. The goal was not just to reaffirm the United States’ claim as a Pacific power but also to drive home the message that the US – contrary to the skeptic belief – isn’t going anywhere. After all, the goal was to solidify President Biden’s repeated assertions around this topic.
However, such assertions from the Biden administration might appear more as a spectacle rather than genuine reassurances. The exposure of American inability to hold onto their commitments, seen through their recent policies and actions, breeds skepticism. Any attempt to build confidence among these nations would then only seem like a vain endeavor, a testament of American self-illusion then of actual capability.
With regards to Kamala Harris, the VP seemed absent in these discussions. Her noted silence and lack of visible contributions remains a glaring sign. This may raise questions about the effectiveness of the current administration, as the Vice President does not appear to be as engaged in foreign policy issues as one would expect from someone in her position of power.
It’s evident that Asian countries have to carefully navigate the tumultuous waters of international politics. Stuck between the domineering presence of China and the inconsistent commitments by the Biden administration, they have to manage an immense measure of political risk. Hence, the Biden administration’s attempt to reassure these nations might actually prove futile amidst the more potent threat posed by China.
Simultaneously, even as countries like Japan and the Philippines are courted by the Biden administration, the fact remains that they engage closely with China – a reality that seems to be ignored by Biden’s foreign policy plans. The myopia within the Biden administration regarding the nuanced and intricate world of Asian geopolitics may possibly lead to an erosion of their credibility in the region.
Ultimately, the trip undertaken by Blinken appears less like a forceful US demonstration of resolve and more of an attempt to grasp at geopolitical straws. His attempts to solidify alliances and give assurances sound hollow when contrasted with the actual actions of the Biden administration. Only time will determine if their diplomacy can carry weight in the face of the actual demands of these ‘third-neighbor’ policies.
Blinken’s Feeble Attempt to Reassure Asian Allies in Shadow of Rising China appeared first on Real News Now.
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