A leading Democratic strategist confided in me, ‘The pathway to 270 electoral votes is dependent on egg prices’. The notion seemed absurd, but the underlying sentiment wasn’t. Lowering prices for something as fundamental as eggs carried symbolic significance, even potentially ‘saving civilization’, according to him. Regardless of the comedy, it was a simplistic solution for deep-rooted economic issues that were going to have a profound impact on the upcoming elections.
For over a year, my routine post-interview query to politically savvy individuals about what they’d want to preempt about the final phases of the election had yielded consistently interesting results. Between the status of conflicts in the Middle East, the legal fate of Donald Trump, or possible future election meddling by foreign adversaries, the most prevalent response remained uniformly focused on the economy. As Jim Messina, Obama’s 2012 campaign manager, succinctly put it in early May, ‘I wish I knew what the economic situation was going to be.’
The impact of economy on the election was not lost on Kamala Harris. The former Vice President, now aspiring to become the Democratic Presidential nominee, relished her newfound popularity. But her honeymoon period soon faced the harsh reality of tasks ahead. Her foremost challenge was navigating through the economic upheaval to secure a win against Trump in November.
Alarm bells began ringing as July’s less than promising employment statistics showed an unemployment spike to 4.3%. This inversely affected global financial markets, causing a significant downturn. Though there was a swift recovery in the following days, it was a sobering reminder that the American post-pandemic economic recovery was still vulnerable and shaky. This economic precariousness presented itself as a major political stumbling block for the Democrats.
The revelation of even more dismal economic data, alarming because of its proximity to the election, could be a serious blow to the Democrats. This is especially because of its potential detrimental impact on two key demographics – younger voters and voters of color – that the Democrats are desperately trying to win over. To deepen the Democrats’ quandary, Trump seems to be making headway with different demographics by offering a raft of tax cuts.
Upon taking over as the nominee, Harris faced an uphill battle. Polls consistently demonstrated a more favorable public perception of Trump in matters of economy, a reality that existed despite Trump’s mismanagement leading to massive job losses, unprecedented since the time of Herbert Hoover. Conversely, Biden’s tenure registered the highest number of employment benefits during a first term. It appeared peculiar that Biden couldn’t fully leverage this achievement due to the economic distortions the pandemic caused.
Biden’s effort to reverse this narrative was embodied in ‘Bidenomics’ – a considerable $25 million advertising blitz. Unfortunately, it proved fruitless. That a group of strategists collectively agreed to such a disasterous branding exercise was a source of bewidlerment and frustration for a notable Biden advisor. Unsurprisingly, ‘Bidenomics’ had little to no impact on swaying public opinion.
The issues with ‘Bidenomics’ were not just limited to its name; the campaign’s preference for focusing on macroeconomic data rather than tangible proof of progress was a greater cause for concern. The soaring prices of everyday essentials like groceries and fuel, aggravated by the inflation sparked through large scale public spending to invigorate post-COVID economy, left a bitter taste in the mouths of voters.
Biden’s presidency indeed, has improved the economy since January 2021. However, this economic advancement failed to benefit Biden’s political credibility. American citizens perceive economic gains primarily through cost of living factors, such as egg prices, which have seen a significant increase from $1.47 to $2.72 under Biden. From voters’ perspectives, the cost of living increases erased any potential goodwill Biden could have gained from the economic progress.
Bakari Sellers, noted Democratic strategist and previous South Carolina state representative and a close associate of the Harris campaign asserts, ‘When people are still feeling the pinch of cost, irrespective of who delivers the message, it’s a challenging sell.’ Sellers highlights how Harris’s superior communication skills were evident during her first few minutes as the nominee in Atlanta, addressing issues like immigration and inflation in a compelling fashion.
A noticeable reduction in egg prices orchestrated by Harris is an unlikely event. However, it is essential for her to devise an innovative approach that strays from Biden’s stale economic narrative and vague promises of not increasing taxes for those earning less than $400,000. Her campaign needs to highlight Trump’s controversial ‘Project 2025’, accusing it of potentially exacerbating the financial burdens of working-class households while further enriching the wealthy elite.
While Biden’s focus on complex economic theories yielded little results, Harris appears to be aware of the voters’ aversion to complicated economics lectures. Wisely, during a recent rally with auto-workers in Detroit, Harris made a genuine connection by striking a chord of empathy. Choosing Wisconsin governor Tim Walz, a staunch pro-union advocate and relatable middle-class individual, as her running mate seems a strategic move to humanize the campaign.
Drawing from his advisory experience, Messina emphasizes the importance of connecting with voters’ daily struggles, ‘ voters are primarily interested in knowing if a candidate understands their predicament and their hardships.’ He believes that Harris’s humble beginnings coupled with her compelling life story could resonate with the voting populace if canvassed properly.
Harris has brought some improvement in the economic trust deficit that plagued Biden’s campaign. Recent numbers from a YouGov survey reduced Trump’s advantage from 14 points against Biden to 10 against Harris. Likewise, Morning Consult’s data from swing states revealed Trump’s advantage waning from 14 points against Biden to only 8 against Harris. However, this encouraging trend needs to be sustained for Harris’s chances of a favorable outcome.
Messina explains that the election’s outcome highly depends upon the economic voters who view politics as a means to an end. Given their focus on economic matters, Harris’s priority must be clearly addressing economic issues. Democratic presidential candidates underperforming in polls on economic issues unvaryingly hav a higher chance of losing.
The importance of this insight cannot be overstated. Harris’s strategy should encompass reaching out to the average swing voter, speaking to their challenges, and presenting clear, actionable economic solutions. This may well be the key to her capturing the Democrats’ much-coveted prize: The White House.
Kamala Harris Struggles to Turn Economy Around Amidst Trickle Up Egg Prices appeared first on Real News Now.
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