Recent polling data have aroused concern among Democrats, indicating a softening support for Vice President Kamala Harris amidst the Black demographic, especially Black men. The pattern suggests perilous ramifications for Harris’ future electoral prospects. In a rather desperate move to arrest this trend, Harris unveiled an ‘Opportunity Agenda for Black Men’ on October 14, but critics question whether a mere agenda could win the confidence of this group.
U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds, a staunch ally of former President Donald Trump, offers an alternative perspective. According to Donalds, this core group in the Democratic constituency would be better off swinging their vote to Trump’s side. Interestingly, Donalds based his argument on a hugely overlooked fact about the Trump administration – the significant rise in the inflation-adjusted wages for Black men and Black families.
Described as the ‘big stat’, Presidential hopeful Donalds argued that this wage surge under Trump’s administration was not circumscribed to the Black population alone but was actually a widespread phenomenon benefiting all Americans. He pointed out the so-called wage gap that Democrats chide about was on a shrinking trajectory under Trump’s administration, courtesy of Trump’s economic, energy, and regulatory policies.
Noteworthy is the point that Donalds highlighted – inflation-adjusted wages for Black men did experience a hike under Trump’s reign. However, critics found it essential to counter his claim by stating that this trend accelerated under Biden’s administration, three times faster to be exact, even when faced with the challenge of the highest inflation in 40 years.
These critics were quick to point out that the wage gap between Black and white workers actually widened rather than narrowed under Trump’s governance. Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of the center-right think tank the American Action Forum, went so far as to dismiss Donalds’ assertion outright, professing that no economist supported Donalds’ claim.
According to the statistics, inflation-adjusted weekly earnings for Black Americans rose from an average of about $275 under Obama to roughly $281 under Trump, an increase of around 2%. The Biden administration, on the other hand, pushed this even further. Weekly wages for Black Americans rose to $298 under Biden, marking a stronger percentage increase of about 6%.
Similar trends are observed for Black men’s wages. During the transition from the Obama administration to Trump’s, inflation-adjusted weekly earnings for Black men rose from an average of $290 to about $295, equating to a nearly 1.8% increase. Again, the wage surge under Biden outpaced Trump as it stood at 5.7%, rising from $295 to $312.
Contrary to Donalds’ claims, the black-white wage gap did not shrink but instead expanded during Trump’s presidency. The inflation-adjusted wages for Black Americans lagged behind white Americans by an average of $74.5 under Obama, but this gap widened to $84.9 under Trump. Under Biden, this disparity reduced slightly to $74.40.
The evidence unfolds a similar picture for Black men. The inflation-adjusted wage gap between Black and white men under Obama was on average about $96, but alarmingly increased to $105.30 under Trump. Biden’s presidency reversed this trend as the gap reduced to $92.80.
So why do wages for Black Americans and Black men in particular seem to experience a faster growth rate under Biden than Trump? Some suggest this acceleration is due to a broader economic trend resulting in fast financial gains for lower-income workers, possibly contributed by unusually low unemployment rates and higher leverage of workers over their employers.
Biden’s American Rescue Plan Act, a pandemic-era stimulus effort, is often credited with providing workers with more options and stronger individual bargaining power, which may have contributed to higher real wages for those lower in the income scale. Calvin Schermerhorn, an historian at Arizona State University, posits that this might be a reason for the higher wages and salaries for Black men under Biden as opposed to Trump.
Whilst Holtz-Eakin concurred with Schermerhorn’s argument about wage gains for lower-income workers accounting for higher wages for Black men under Biden, he was quick to point out that similar trends were noticed even in 2019 under Trump, a time when the unemployment rate was low, and the labor market quite snug.
Still, critics would argue that these gains under Trump ceased within a year or so due to the insurgency of the pandemic. In contrast, Biden’s presidency has allowed for a considerably longer time frame for these trends to take hold, thereby enhancing their impact.
In sum, while it’s true that inflation-adjusted wages for Black Americans and Black men did rise under Trump’s administration, they increased at a significantly faster rate under Biden’s term. The wage gap between white and Black citizens, rather than shrinking under Trump as some suggest, actually widened and only began to narrow under Biden.
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