The first high-speed railway in Southeast Asia, spanning between Indonesian cities Jakarta and Bandung, has proven to be more of an issue for Indonesia than China, who built it. As the railway commenced operations in late 2023, an Indonesian party noted, ‘This is our issue now, not China’s’. This statement underscores the intricate nature of reactions towards the US-China rivalry from Southeat Asian elites and general public. Such reactions traverse the domains of mere conjecture regarding China’s reactions to the potential shift in the USA’s allegiance to the region.
The US-China power play in Southeast Asia isn’t symmetrical, contradicting some prevalent hype about how one’s actions might impact the other. This asymmetry is visible across the DIME (Diplomatic, Informational, Military, and Economic) move. Economically, since 2009, China has succeeded in surpassing the US as Southeast Asia’s major trade partner, with an almost two-to-one lead. The United States, however, still holds a gradually decreasing investment advantage.
Security-wise, despite the deserving attention China’s security partnerships have drawn over the past decade, the US still outperforms China by nearly a four-to-one ratio in terms of the number of military exercises. The challenges faced by Washington and Beijing in the region are unique and distinct. The US wrestles with converting its influence into lasting commitments; China grapples with an influence-trust divide echoed by years of polling and policymakers’ exclusive unease.
Four specific areas are crucial to observe given the changing dynamics: the American commitment and its value proposition; China’s evolving strategy; the proactive role of Southeast Asian countries; and the impact of other global and regional players. Apart from the prism of the US-China rivalry, Southeast Asian countries are themselves propelling intra-regional competition and magnetizing international interest.
Looking ahead, the vital question is how they visualize these powers fitting into their wider alignment strategies throughout the remainder of the 21st century. It would require crafting strategies across core sectors and maneuvering long-term national interests whilst balancing short-term regime interests amidst multiple leadership turnovers. These strategies should be mindful of previous experiences.
The changing global orders present an indication that the post-World War II rules-based order, primarily driven by the U.S., is facing challenges in this growingly multipolar world. As dynamics continue to shift, the international partnerships of Southeast Asian nations may likewise evolve, further complicating decisions beyond having a main focus on either Beijing or Washington.
Interestingly, countries like Chile and Canada show an appetite for trading with Southeast Asia. This emerging interest could potentially reshape the global dynamics and further complicate the regional picture. To summarize, the complexity of the US-China rivalry and its implications on Southeast Asia are still developing, and scrutinizing these evolving dynamics from multiple angles is of the utmost importance.
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