Recent events in Florida and Wisconsin have brought the political stature of President Donald Trump under scrutiny, a mere two months into his second term in office. The highlight of the Tuesday’s election is a tussle for a crucial Wisconsin Supreme Court seat. Surprisingly, even this theoretically non-partisan election has seen an extravagant expenditure of, at least, $90 million. In this contest, conservative judge Brad Schimel has the patronage of Trump and business tycoon Elon Musk, while democrat-backed liberal Susan Crawford has the support of progressive billionaires.
Two congressional seats in Florida, traditionally favoring Republicans, are up for grabs, which if won, could infuse fresh life into a suffocating GOP, within a strait-laced chamber. An infomal grapevine, however, suggests that the Democrats in the two districts far outpaced their Republican adversaries in campaign fundraising. Mention must be made that the Republicans publicly voiced some qualms about the battle for the seat vacated by Mike Waltz, who now helms Trump’s national security team.
Wisconsin statewide elections have historically witnessed Democrats captivating large demographics in populous counties such as Milwaukee and Dane, which hosts Madison. Interestingly, the magnitude of this victory often plays a decisive role in determining the overall winner, especially in neck-to-neck races. For instance, in the 2024 elections, Democratic candidate Kamala Harris claimed Milwaukee and Dane with significant vote percentage, yet fell short at the state level.
On the same night, Democratic U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin slightly outperformed Harris in both counties and clinched the election by a whisker. Come 2023, Supreme Court candidate Janet Protasiewicz, supported by the Democratic Party, outpolled her peers by amassing 73% and 82% of the votes in Milwaukee and Dane, respectively, before eventually winning the state by an 11-percentage-point margin.
However, Republican candidates tend to seek solace in the comfort zones of suburb-counties of Milwaukee — Washington, Ozaukee, and Waukesha, better known for their acronym ‘WOW’. A robust GOP performance in these counties normally offsets the Democratic dominance in urban regions. Indeed, every major statewide election witnessed the GOP holding these regions in their fold, since 2016.
Another strong ground for Republican candidates is Brown County, housing Green Bay, albeit the winning margins are not extravagant. Trump secured the county during all his presidential campaigns with a vote percentage ranging between 52% and 53%. Nevertheless, recent times have seen Democrats making inroads with victories in gubernatorial and state Supreme Court races.
Consistently, Democrats have managed to barely stay afloat at the state level without winning Brown County. Instances include Joe Biden’s 2020 triumph, the successful bid for re-election by Evers in 2022, and all three of Baldwin’s U.S. Senate victories. However, whenever Brown County chose to side with Democrats, it has invariably been ominous for the Republicans.
The strategic location in statewide elections of Sauk County, to Madison’s northwest, cannot be overlooked. Despite being modest in terms of population, and typically endorsing the Democratic candidate by razor-thin margins, it is quite the determinant in the elections. Historically, Democratic candidates or their surrogates have seized Sauk County in most of the major statewide elections.
Nonetheless, Trump’s victories here in 2016 and 2024, coinciding with his success in Wisconsin and ascension to the Oval Office, form a remarkable exception. Although Sauk will unlikely single-handedly define the outcomes of the forthcoming Tuesday elections, a win for the Republicans could potentially signal a party-wide resurgence.
Democrats are apparently buoyed by impressive fundraising performances of their nominees contending to replace Waltz and the former Florida representative Matt Gaetz. Nevertheless, the imminent special elections are set in a backdrop of traditionally Republican territories. In particular, Trump bagged around 68% of the votes in 2024 in Florida’s 1st Congressional District, slightly outshining the 66% vote count of Gaetz in his bid for re-election.
Whereas, the 6th Congressional District situated along the Atlantic coast saw Trump amassing 65% of the votes, fractionally lower than the 67% votes in favor of Waltz’s final re-election bid to the House. It is noteworthy that the four counties constituting the 1st District have a GOP-leaning bias dating back six decades. Only Walton County showed an aberration, siding with a Democrat only once since 1960. However, currently, Walton County’s 1st District exhibits the most consistent Republican preferences.
Six counties of the 6th District have been consistently won by Republican presidential candidates in all the last four elections. Some of these counties, such as Lake County, have retained this trend for several decades, with the last Democrat win tracing back to Franklin Roosevelt in 1944. Trump and Waltz manifested their strongest performances in Putnam County, each amassing roughly 74% of the votes.
While the prospects of a Democratic upset in either the 1st or 6th district seem slim given the Republican stronghold, important clues may emerge from their best-performing counties. Despite claiming dominance, Republicans had their weakest performances in these districts in Escambia County and Volusia County respectively.
Albeit with 58% vote share for Trump and roughly 60% for Waltz, Volusia County in the 6th District might offer the Democrats their best chance. Republicans have won Volusia for the last four presidential races, but it was considered much friendlier territory for the Democrats in the period 1992-2008.
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