Last evening, the well-known innovator and entrepreneur Elon Musk made a tantalizing prediction: by the end of the forthcoming year, the highways would be teeming with autonomous Tesla vehicles, reaching into the millions. This has become a rhythm of sorts, with Musk making similar ambitious pledges annually, dating back to at least 2020. Every subsequent year, the assertion of Tesla vehicles finally accomplishing complete self-driving capabilities has remained unfulfilled. Tesla has faced scrutiny following numerous fatal accidents involving its vehicles, alongside concerns about its driver assist features, christened Autopilot and Full Self-Driving. Despite these setbacks, Musk remains steadfast, reframing his chronic optimism by referring to himself as ‘the boy who cried FSD.’
Elon foresees a future where millions of Teslas navigate the roads, fully autonomous, as early as the second half of next year. The possibility of sleeping in your auto, only to be awakened upon reaching the destination, by year-end, was boldly promised by Musk. However, this ambitious forecast appears increasingly elusive especially as the reality of Tesla’s technical constraints become apparent. Throughout a recent conference call, Musk’s determination to produce fully autonomous vehicles using camera-only sensors and a complex neural network trained on billions of driving miles remained unfettered.
Earnings calls have become an established podium for Musk, where inquiries about the technology that drives Tesla are addressed. By the year 2025, the company aims to launch an ‘unsupervised’ robotaxi service on the streets of Austin, Texas, as asserted by Musk last year. During the most recent call, Musk reinforced this timeline, and further elucidated what the service would entail. He envisions utilizing a fleet of 10-20 Model Y vehicles, complete with remote operators to intervene in the event that any cars encounter problems.
One intriguing detail shared by Musk was about ‘audio input’ incorporated in these robotaxis, to alert the vehicle to nearby emergency response vehicles. Initially, Musk had promised to deliver Level 5 autonomy – a term referring to a fully autonomous vehicle capable of travelling anywhere, under any circumstances, and sans limitations. However, in a significant walkback of his previous claim, Musk admitted that certain conditions, such as a ‘blizzard in Manhattan’, would present challenges that would prohibit fully-autonomous operations, in essence implying geofencing.
Musk went on to state that it was becoming increasingly clear that there’s an advantage to having a set of tailor-made parameters for different regions and local conditions, a consideration echoed throughout the industry. One analyst during the call raised concerns about the efficiency of Tesla’s cameras in dealing with natural occurrences, such as sun glare or fog. Musk assured that the company’s vision system does not rely on image processing, opting instead to use direct photon counting to manage such ‘noise’, whether it be glare or dust.
Many proponents of autonomous vehicles, including other robotaxi operators firmly believe that relying solely on cameras do not suffice to navigate a driverless car through complex environments. On the contrary, many of Tesla’s rivals, such as Waymo, count on multiple sensors – lidar, radar, and ultrasonic, besides cameras, to provide redundancy in challenging situations. Musk, however, disparages lidar as a ‘crutch’, presenting his company’s approach as innovative and unconventional.
Tesla distinguishes itself with its vertical integration, refraining from outsourcing any of the major components of its vehicles. The car, the onboard computer, and the sensors on it are all products of Tesla. Musk contends that this self-reliance gives Tesla a competitive edge in the industry. He believes Tesla has the advantage, opinionating that each autonomous Tesla probably costs a fraction – around 20-25% – of what an autonomous Waymo vehicle does, and can be mass-produced with relative ease.
Despite his confidence, Musk acknowledges that there remain significant obstacles. He predicts that a multitude of 10 million autonomous Tesla cars will roam the streets in a few years, provided there aren’t any regulatory hurdles that interfere. Musk believes there are currently no significant barriers to launching dozens, or even hundreds of these driverless cars. As it stands now, nothing regulatory wise seems to inhibit Tesla’s ambitions.
Meanwhile, Waymo’s autonomous vehicles are already in operation within four cities, one of which is Austin where Tesla aims to launch too, along with plans for testing in additional cities. However, Tesla has yet to show proof of distinct public road autonomy, preferring to limit its demonstrations to closed settings or private roads. It is suggested that indisputable validation is just around the bend – contingent on the credibility of Elon Musk’s recurring assurances.
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