Ahead of a vital meeting in Switzerland between US and China aiming to mitigate the intensifying trade discord, an article cited in the government-run Beijing Daily is suggesting the potential direction Beijing might take. This publicized content is frequently interpreted as Beijing’s endorsed view. The most recent article, titled ‘Today, it is necessary to revisit On Protracted War’, puts forth the idea that the ongoing trade conflict is an American scheme to stifle China’s economic rise and emphasizes the need to view the existing trade issues as a long-term evolution.
The significant aspect to be noticed here is the reference to ‘On Protracted War’, an article penned by ex-Chinese leader Mao Zedong in 1938. This influential piece mapped out Mao’s strategies to combat the Japanese invaders during the second Sino-Japanese conflict that transpired between 1937 and 1945. This tactical framework was instrumental in the formation of the People’s Republic of China in 1949, following communist triumph in the enduring Chinese civil war.
Mao Zedong held the position of the chairman of the Chinese Communist party from 1943 and continued up to his death in 1976. During his tenure, Mao constructed a collection of political theories commonly referred to as ‘Maoism’ and produced abundant works on political strategy. Chinese policymakers and influencers in the media consistently invoke the nation’s history as a means to rationalize their domestic and international policies.
Referencing Mao’s text in the current context serves a dual purpose. Not only does it hint at China’s strategy in managing the ongoing trade war, but it also underlines the enduring impact of his ideologies. The content of Mao’s 1938 essay discussed a struggle that, superficially, differs considerably from the China/US tariff discord of today. His central hypothesis was that guerrilla warfare was a prolonged endeavor with minimal prospects for an immediate victory.
Mao’s assertion that a war of attrition would result in China’s triumph by gradually draining the resources of the conventionally superior Japanese troops has influenced various insurgencies worldwide. Movements such as the Taliban in Afghanistan have implemented a similar extended war of attrition strategy against more significant and technologically advanced adversaries.
By drawing parallels to ‘On Protracted War’, it appears that Beijing regards their economic battles with the US as an extended struggle unlikely to end swiftly. This viewpoint could take Donald Trump by surprise, given his evident expectation of resolving the issue quickly. This long-held view did not only materialize out of nowhere; rather, it manifested from Beijing’s experiences dealing with the first Trump presidency, thus preparing for a second trade war with the US administration.
While Beijing envisages an extended battle, the US, on the contrary, presumed the trade war to be a comparatively transient event that could be resolved with a prompt and decisive victory against China. This assumption is evident in Washington’s rapid deployments and public announcements. However, by conditioning its population for a long trade war, China’s strategy, similar to Mao’s, intends to minimize haste, and maximize the benefits over time.
China strongly believes that its consumers are more equipped to endure hardships compared to Americans. Therefore, US diplomats may benefit from studying ‘On Protracted War’ to better comprehend China’s President Xi Jinping’s strategic objectives. Furthermore, one fundamental political concept of Mao was the ‘people’s war’. This strategy involved a gradual shift where one group establishes “shadow institutions” that eventually eclipse the existing establishments, thus garnering better local support.
This strategy can also be seen in China’s globalization approach, where they have either supported or founded alternatives to US-led institutions. Most of Beijing’s international bodies, such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, and the Belt and Road Initiative, are alternatives to more established international entities like IMF and World Bank. Beijing perceives these as heavily dominated by the US.
While China has meticulously nurtured this policy over decades, it coincidentally aligns with Trump’s lack of commitment to the US involvement in international institutions. Both Xi and Trump seem to have somewhat congruent objectives in this aspect of international politics, potentially providing more room for Chinese leadership within these institutions.
It’s gradually becoming evident that the Trump administration has overestimated its negotiating power, thinking Beijing would quickly give in. This underlines a fundamental misunderstanding of Chinese culture and political history. The swift resolution they hoped for has not come to pass, and now, US retailers have started cautioning that many goods might soon be in short supply.
The trade spat has taken the form of a war of attrition, and any maneuvers that Xi performs presently are probably just the beginning of what he envisions as a long game, invoking the Maoist tradition. China is buckling up for a protracted battle, pinning its hopes on slowly weakening the adversary over time, as opposed to seeking a hasty resolution.
The post Beijing Draws From Mao’s Strategies in Prolonging Trade War appeared first on Real News Now.
About Author
