This week’s league meeting in Minneapolis features a new topic on the NFL owners’ agenda: a discussion about a proposal for altering the seeding format in the playoffs’ second round. This is not the first time such an initiative has come forwarded this year. Its inception can be tracked back to a March meeting, where the Detroit Lions introduced their iteration of this concept.
The Lions’ suggestion was anchored in the belief that home-field advantage in the playoffs should be dictated purely by a team’s seasonal record. However, there was a noticeable reluctance from some owners towards stripping division winners of their initial home-field advantage. This hesitation led to a revised suggestion: reseed the teams post the wild-card round.
The updated proposal would see the teams reorganized based solely on their record when they advance to the divisional round. The team’s record would remain the sole defining factor no matter whether a team secured its playoff spot through a wild card or by winning its division. To transition from a proposal to a rule, it would necessitate a minimum of 24 owner votes.
A look at the constitution of the current playoff format provides context for the magnitude of such changes. At present, the NFC and AFC’s four division winners are allocated the first four seeds, a status maintained throughout the postseason. The leftover seeds, five through seven, are reserved for three wild-card teams.
The logistics of round one remain the same in the new proposal as the current system. Number 1 seed achieves a bye, whereas No. 2 opposes No. 7, No. 3 contests No. 6, and No. 4 battles No. 5. The divisional champion, regardless of whether a wild-card team surpassed their record, enjoys the privilege of hosting in the first round.
The proposed changes start affecting the scenario in the second round. Under the new format, instead of the top-seeded team competing against the lowest remaining seed, the team boasting the best record will face off against the team with the poorest record. Similarly, the team with the second-most impressive record will challenge the team with the second-least commendable record.
From the perspective of the Detroit Lions, the new format could have provided a more beneficial play-off matchup. For instance, a game against the Rams, featuring the less mobile quarterback Matthew Stafford, might have been more favourable than their actual encounter, where they had to contend with the dynamic Jayden Daniels.
Although conjecture, it’s reasonable to believe that Stafford’s non-threatening mobility could have benefitted the Lions, especially if he stuck to his week 1 strategy. His knack for rapid ball release and distribution might have proved less damning than the versatile Daniels. However, it’s worth mentioning that the Rams were in decent form towards the end of the year.
Further compounding Detroit’s issues, the Lions’ defence was significantly impacted by a string of injuries among their starters such as Aidan Hutchinson, Alim McNeill, Carlton Davis, Derrick Barnes, Marcus Davenport, Amik Robertson, and numerous others who usually rotate in. These absences reduced the Lions’ defence to a mere shadow of its former self.
Moreover, careless ball handling in the loss to the Commanders only added to the Lions’ woes. But despite all these factors, it is important to consider one aspect: last year, all division champions triumphed in the wild-card round, meaning that AFC’s divisional round would have remained the same under the proposed amendments.
In the case of the Texans, they secured a worse record than their wild-card rivals, but the new proposal, reseeding only in the second round based on record, would have ensured their home-field advantage in the first round as AFC South champions. Thus, the Texans’ playoff run would remain unaffected.
Ultimately, should the proposal have been operational, it wouldn’t have drastically altered the Texans’ post-season trajectory. The Texans would still have hosted an opening game. Furthermore, being fourth seed meant they were already scheduled to travel for the second round of the divisional play-offs.
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