We start with a somber note as Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.) has recently passed away at the age of 75. A diagnosis of esophageal cancer emerged only after his re-election in the previous November; he had also shared he will not run for re-election next term. However, the political landscape continues, and trying to make sense of major events like political elections can be akin to navigating through a storm. The Democratic data firm Catalist’s report on the 2024 election, albeit a gloomy one, provides some enlightenment.
The findings, somewhat expected, indicated Kamala Harris’ loss was largely due to her failed appeal to younger and more diverse voters, conversely, Trump demonstrated a surprising popularity amongst these groups. The supposed torchbearer for women and men of color registered a staggering loss. She trailed 12 points behind with Latino men, dropped seven points with black men, and six points with Asian men in comparison to Biden’s 2020 performance.
Interestingly, not just the male voter base, Harris also lost her footing amongst some women voters, recording seven fewer points amongst Latina women, four points with Asian women, and overall one point less with women in contrast to Biden in the year 2020. However, what goes largely unnoticed is her strangely high performance amongst the ‘super voters’, those having voted in the last four major national elections. A near majority, 50 percent of them, threw in their weight behind Harris.
These results could have translated into a victory, but her failure to engage with the infrequent voters had proven fatal. The Cook Political Report pointed out the unsurprising reality, ‘Harris wanted an electorate heavily populated with frequent voters, while the Trump team wanted an electorate filled with voters who have not participated as much in major elections.’ Ultimately, Trump got the electorate he needed.
What should Democrats take away from this catastrophe? Some may clutch at straws stating that they have performed slightly better in some swing states than they did nationally. Well, that’s stretching optimism too far, since Trump still emerged victorious in those swing states.
It was considered a given that Democrats had a safe hold on young and minority voters whileRepublicans dominated amongst established and white voters, but the 2024 election brutally debunked this myth. A decade of Trump in the picture massively repainted our electoral coalitions.
Over the years, conducting numerous focus groups led to developing knowledge of the intricate dynamics of the American voter. The constantly evolving information landscape and cultural differences make it harder than ever to put voters into manageable categories for political analysis.
The factors playing into Biden’s victory in 2020 were embedded in the ongoing COVID issues and their devastating impact on the economy. On the other hand, Trump’s 2024 victory hinged largely on constant inflation worries, COVID-induced nostalgia for Trump’s pre-pandemic economy.
Both Democrats and Republicans find themselves on unsteady ground as they contemplate securing future majorities in general elections. It is crucial for Democrats to comprehend that their destiny is bound to be shaped by economics, not demographics, and focus on a persuasive economic strategy to improve voters’ lives.
Republicans have their fair share of issues too. Since Trump ethics took over their political identity, they’ve experienced a worrying exodus of reliable, college-educated, suburban voters. It seems as if Republicans are floundering, without a clear path or better ideas, merely clinging onto a possibility of Trump running for a third term.
The post Harris’s Embarrassing Defeat: Failed to Secure Young and Diverse Votes appeared first on Real News Now.
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