In a recent claim by David Shor, a Democratic pollster and strategist, he professed based on his distinct research that the newest generation of voters could possibly be the most conservative in half a century. This troublesome assumption, however, lacked any form of validation from existing public data collected before or during recent elections. National exit polls, while not flawless, provide substantial data over time and distinctly illustrated Kamala Harris only leading by 11 points among voters aged 18-to-29. This is indicative of a significant slip compared to Joe Biden’s 24-point lead for the same demographic in 2020. Hence, it is far from suggestive of a generation ready to pledge lifelong support to the Republican party.
Nevertheless, Harris experienced a minor pick up among younger voters aged 18-to-24, compared to those aged between 25 and 29. A detailed report issued by the liberal data firm Catalist aimed to nullify the notion of Gen Z constituting right-wing supporters. In fact, this age group reputably remains the most left leaning in the USA, but there is evidence suggesting Republicans may be losing their grasp on these voters.
The report by Catalist disclosed that Kamala Harris secured 55 percent of the pool of 18-to-29-year-old votes when third-party support is excluded. This number shows a decline from Joe Biden’s 61 percent in 2020. The marked 6-point decrease is quite indicative of the reduced Democratic vote share in the entire electorate. Nevertheless, such a data disparity is insignificant in supporting the fear that a whole generation has pivoted hard-right.
The successful Republican performance in 2024 had a resonance across virtually all sectors of the electorate. This trend was observed in voter demographics such as Black by 4 points, Latino by 9 points, and Asian American and Pacific Islander voters by 4 points. The consequent decline for Democrats suggests an increasingly difficult environment for Harris on a national level. However, the sharpest decline noted was among the young voters, which greatly affected the outcome of the 2024 cycle.
Particularly alarming was a significant 9-point drop in the support from young voters, predominantly males aged 18-to-29. There was a considerable reduction in the Democratic vote share among young black males, from 85 percent in 2020 to 75 percent in 2024. Young Latino men who voted for Joe Biden by granting him 63 percent of the vote in 2020, only awarded a mere 47 percent to Harris in 2024.
Biden’s term as President presented an excellent opening for the GOP. His sinking approval rating in 2023-2024, wavering between 30s and 40s, gave Republicans a golden opportunity to appeal to the new voters whose political stance is not yet solidified. This generation is particularly receptive to choosing an alternate party, especially when they are displeased with the incumbent.
Despite the undeniable dissatisfaction with Democratic leadership, the GOP made only incremental gains among young voters while failing to convince the majority of their cause. Since 2002, in all national midterm and presidential elections, the Republicans have continually underperformed with younger demographics as compared to all other age groups.
It is not uncommon for youth insurgency to be myth instead of reality. However, the harsh reality staring at the GOP now is that the Trump administration’s strife-ridden and disruptive actions during its early second-term staged a disservice to their best chance of the 21st century to win over a new generation of voters, or even to extend the momentum they established in 2024.
Disagreements on the subject of trans women in youth sports, part of a heated debate among Democrats, was split almost down the middle according to a poll conducted by Yale University. While it is pertinent for Democrats to be concerned about this gender gap, it need not lead them to backtrack on issues such as the rights of trans or immigrant individuals.
By emphasizing a narrative pushed by a small section of center-left commentators who suggest moving rightwards on multiple issues, Democrats would certainly be stepping into a trap. In truth, it’s the Trump administration’s inefficiencies and corruption that are presenting Democrats the perfect opportunity to redefine their image among young voters.
The post Young Voters Shy Away from Biden, Harris Administration: An Alarming Trend? appeared first on Real News Now.
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