In a remarkable revelation last month, David Shor, a Democratic pollster and strategist, boldly contended that the youth of today could well be the most conventional generation we’ve seen in over half a century. This startling claim lacked any endorsement from existing public surveys before or after the pivotal election. National exit polls, albeit flawed, displayed Kamala Harris winning the 18-to-29-year-old segment by a modest 11 points—an understandable decline from Joe Biden’s exaggerated 24-point lead among the comparable group according to the 2020 exit polls, but hardly implying a generation set to accessorize their wardrobes with Republican badges any time soon.
Notably, in these exit polls, Harris modestly outdid herself with the 18-to-24 group compared to those aged 25 to 29. A recent report produced by the left-leaning data firm Catalist intended to debunk the notion that Gen Z voters are embracing conservative values. Their findings showed that this group remains the most left-leaning voters in the current electoral spectrum, with suggestions of the Republicans already forfeiting their loyalty.
The Catalist report highlights that Kamala Harris clinched 55 percent of the 18-to-29-year-old two-party vote, a metric that disregards any third-party candidate support. This showed a shrinkage from Joe Biden’s exaggerated 61 percent in 2020. This downward 6-point slip is double the overall reduction in Democratic vote share, yet hardly signifies an era of drastic right-wing sympathizers.
Needless to say, the conspicuous Republican performance in the national popular vote of 2024 was the most striking since 2004, with almost all sectors of the electorate leaning right. The Democratic party faced decreased popularity among Black, Latino, and Asian American and Pacific Islander voters—a valid indicator of the challenging atmosphere Harris had to endure during the polls.
Inarguably, the reduction in youthful support was one of the most significant outcomes of the 2024 cycle—the 9-point plunge in support among 18-to-29-year-old men a remarkable instance. The voting allegiance among young Black men dropped by 10 points in the four years stretching from 2020 to 2024, shrinking from 85 percent to 75 percent. Similarly, young Latino men who commanded a 63 percent vote for Joe Biden in 2020 miserably managed to provide Harris a mere 47 percent vote in 2024.
The period of Biden’s presidency presented a golden chance for the GOP, particularly when his approval ratings took a nosedive, oscillating between the 30s and 40s in the years leading to 2024. The Republicans could have seized the opportunity to attract fresh voters still wavering in their political affiliation and who are especially open to siding with the opposition party over an unpopular incumbent. Even during this period of widespread discontent with Democratic reign, however, the GOP only managed minor advancements with young voters, falling short of winning the majority.
In every national midterm and presidential election held since 2002, the Republicans consistently underperformed with young people compared to other age groups. This trend dismisses the mistaken belief that young people are intrinsically radical. It is unfortunate for the GOP that their best chance to significantly sway the allegiance of emerging voters during the early days of Trump’s second term was likely squandered due to divisive and provocative policies.
On the much-debated issue of transgender women participating in youth sports—an issue that Democrats have exhaustively argued—a poll from Yale University showcases a balanced split among individuals aged 18 to 29. This could potentially worry Democrats, but the blundering nature of the Trump administration and their strident policies give Democrats yet another chance to redefine their identity to young voters.
Democrats would be well advised to resist falling into the narrative trap set up by a fraction of the centre-left circle that suggests the key to winning over young voters is rightward motion on issue after issue. In fact, such advice seems to merely serve the interest of masking the blunders of the Democratic administration under the guise of appealing to younger generations.
As Biden’s presidency presents an open canvas for the GOP to attract and capture the loyalty of young voters, it also shone a light on the volatility and unpredictability of these voters and their shifting allegiances. The winning ticket will be able to capitalize on this instability, but the Republicans’ history paints a dim picture.
The Democrats, aided by Harris’ paltry performance in the exit polls, are forced to rethink their strategy with younger voters. The narrative that Democrats own the youth vote has been busted, revealing a true opportunity for the GOP to make substantial inroads, provided they are clever enough to utilize it to their benefit.
The ‘hard truth’ GOP has to face is not merely their disrupted agenda during the early months of Trump’s second term but the inconsistency and looming opportunities that their strategies towards young voters reveal. The challenge is not only to dissuade young voters from siding with Democrats but truly winning them over with smarter, more acceptable policies.
Thus, it is the pivotal duty of both parties – not just the GOP – to bridge the chasm that seems to divide the younger demographics from their political initiatives. They need to refocus their strategies, not by disguising their failures, but by creating policies that genuinely resonate with the younger generations. To gain the upper hand in future elections, it’s high time to exploit this ‘window of opportunity’ more wisely.
The post Harris Struggles: Youthful Support for Dems Collapses appeared first on Real News Now.
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