While engaging in an escalating tariff dispute with the United States, China has managed to augment its export relationships with other regions like India, the European Union (EU), and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), as seen in trade figures for May 2025. This new trend was documented in a recent study by the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI). The study underscored that China’s May 2025 trade data revealed a considerable reorientation of its export markets, with a glaring downturn in consignments to the United States.
The report made a notable observation: While the country’s total exports experienced a subtle upswing of 4.6 per cent, escalating from $302.1 billion in May 2024 to $316.2 billion in May 2025, its exports to the United States plunged drastically by 34.5 per cent. This steep plunge from $44 billion to $28.8 billion in a single year has been counterbalanced by the country’s intensifying export relationships with other regions.
Significant growth in exports has been recorded in different regions. For example, exports to the European Union rose by 12% to $49.5 billion and to the ASEAN, the increment was 15% to $58.4 billion. India also witnessed an uptick in imports from China by 12.4% to $11.13 billion. This trend redirection underscores a robust adaptive mechanism of global supply chains in the backdrop of flaring up geopolitical and socio-economic stresses.
Advice has been floated to nations to exercise caution towards any potential aggressive export push, as it may result in goods dumping. According to GTRI’s interpretation, ‘The precipitous slump in China’s consignments to the US is getting balanced by a surge in exports to other markets. It’s key for nations maintain surveillance for any incidence of export push by means of dumping.’
A shift in India’s trade posture is acknowledged by its domestic trade statistics. Although there was a minor decrease by 1.8 per cent in India’s total imports of merchandise on a year-on-year basis, falling from $61.7 billion in May 2024 to $60.6 billion in May 2025, the fall was majorly precipitated by dips in oil and gold imports.
If we eliminate petroleum, gold, and diamond products from the equation, imports witnessed an actual rise by 12%, which translates from $36.8 billion to $41.2 billion. Two principal categories were at the helm of this import boom: electronics and machinery/computers. Electronics imports scaled up by 27.5% to $9.1 billion, and machinery and computer imports swelled by 22% to touch $5 billion.
Notably, China emerged as a big participant in these imports. The collective imports from China and Hong Kong into India saw a significant jump of 22.4% taking the figures from $9.8 billion the previous year to $12 billion.
India also witnessed an encouraging uptrend on the export front. In particular, its consignments to the United States charted a positive course, registering a 17.3% increase to $8.8 billion in May 2025. Smartphones largely drove this rise, signalling their crucial role in India’s export sector.
These figures reflect the ongoing tension between the US and China over trade matters, and it’s likely this state of affairs may persist unless a definitive tariff agreement is negotiated. For India, the global landscape is still fraught with uncertainties due to brewing conflicts in the Middle East, which involve Iran, Israel, Hamas, and the Houthis, and could potentially disrupt critical shipping routes and oil supplies.
In light of these transitional phases that are molding the global narrative, the GTRI report advised India to tread cautiously in its commercial strategies. It advocated for a focus on balanced trade contracts and an upgrade in the ease of doing business so as to bolster the nation’s standing in the global trade scenario.
The validation of the report’s observations can be seen in how swiftly global supply chains respond to geopolitical and economic tensions. As these developments continue to unfold, the report emphasized the need for nations to maintain strategic flexibility in their trade policies to navigate the evolving international trade landscape.
The emphasis on balanced trade agreements might become instrumental in avoiding aggressive export pushes and potential dumping of goods. Additionally, a better ease of doing business not only enables smoother endeavours domestically, but also sends a positive signal to international investors considering their options.
In conclusion, nations, especially those emerging as significant players in global trade, should keep a cautious outlook towards potential geopolitical shifts and fluctuations in trading patterns. The undercurrents of the global trading ecosystem are ever-changing and businesses, as well as governments, should strive for resilience and adaptability against these shifting forces.
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