On a crucial day in June, President Donald Trump of the United States stated with calculated resolution that multiple military actions against Iranian nuclear facilities had taken place. The consequence of these actions is of immense magnitude, with the potential to radically reshape the geopolitical landscape of West Asia in the near and far future. Historical events in similar contexts, such as the Western involvement in Iraq in 1992 and 2002, and Libya in 2011, resulted in speedy military victories but left a trail of long-lasting destabilization. The American commander-in-chief did not mince words, threatening more severe interventions if Iran should resist efforts toward peaceful resolution.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi, made it clear that all options remain on the table for defending the interests and sovereignty of Iran. This leaves many wondering if the world is on the precipice of an expansive and protracted conflict. Additionally, the question arises how the situation in the sub-continent will be influenced, especially considering a meeting between President Trump and General Munir, the recently elevated Field Marshal and Chief of Army Staff of Pakistan, just before the aforementioned airstrike.
The newly promoted Field Marshal Munir had several discussions with President Trump, including a non-traditional private meal at the White House, signaling a departure from established precedent. This happened soon after Israel had initiated its offensive on the 13th of June. As an interesting note, Pakistan was commended earlier in the same month in a Senate hearing by General Michael Kurilla, the head of the U.S Central Command (CENTCOM), for its counterterrorism efforts and the key role it played in the apprehension and extradition of Mohd. Sharifullah.
Sharifullah, who is being held responsible for the tragic deaths of 13 American servicemen during the evacuation from Afghanistan at Kabul airport in 2021, was a testing point in the relationships between these nations. Pakistan’s diplomatic ties with Iran are intricate and multifaceted. On one side, both nations compete for geopolitical influence in Afghanistan. On the other, Pakistan holds a sense of accomplishment as the sole country with a Muslim majority wielding nuclear weaponry and is hesitant to relinquish this unique status.
In history, friction between the two nations escalated due to assaults on Iranian safety forces from groups operating from within Pakistan. This resulted in missile exchanges in 2024. This historical backdrop shows how Pakistan can influence Iran’s isolation in case of an armed conflict with Israel. Iran is a country heavily dependent on imports for most of its food supply, thus making land trade routes significant, especially if regional disputes lead to port closures along the Persian Gulf.
Relevant in the current discussion is Pakistan’s decision in mid-June, the same time that General Munir had arrived in Washington, to close its terrestrial borders with Iran, with exceptions made solely for the return of Pakistani citizens. In the budget for fiscal year 2025-26 presented by Pakistan on June 10, an increased fund allocation was made for defense, even as overall expenditure was decreased by 7%. The defined portion of expenditure for defense in the budget stands at 2.55 trillion Pakistani rupees, hinting at the country’s prioritization of its military.
However, this figure does not account for an allocation of 742 billion Pakistani rupees that is destined to cover military pensions. Taking this into consideration, the overall military expenditure comes to a staggering sum of 3.29 trillion Pakistani rupees ($11.65 billion). This is a notable increase of over 17% from the previous year’s budget. In sharp contrast, the previously overlooked development sector saw a drastic reduction in allocations by half to a meager 1 trillion Pakistani rupees, further emphasizing the country’s militarist focus.
In an address to his countrymen on April 16, General Munir propagated the concept of superior ideology. In his speech, he also discussed the two-nation theory and continued the narrative that Kashmir is an integral part of Pakistan, further adding to the complexity of the geopolitical situation in the area. The crux of his talk revolved around the suppressed struggle for Baloch nationhood.
This concept is particularly pivotal to understanding tensions in Balochistan, a region that had always resisted the idea of merging with Pakistan. During the partition of the Indian subcontinent in 1947, the Khan of Kalat had proclaimed the region an independent entity, supported by the approval of the Loya Jirga.
Jinnah was quick to give a nod to Balochistan’s independence initially, but later opted to deploy troops to crush the nascent state’s aspirations. The main premise of General Munir’s address in April seemed to highlight the need to suppress the ongoing Baloch struggle for national identity. The unfolding geopolitical scenario paints a picture of brewing tensions and conflicts, with potent effects for the region and the world.
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