Newly analyzed radar imagery obtained from American scholars at Oregon State University, known for employing satellite radar statistics to uncover bomb damage in war-torn regions, signifies the direct impact of five Israeli military buildings by Iranian missiles during a recent conflict stretching over twelve days. Israel’s authorities have not announced these strikes and due to rigid rules on military censorship, such news can’t be delivered within the nation. This information stands to intensify the fraught discourse between the rival nations, as each asserts the upper hand.
According to the information, six Iranian missiles targeted five military facilities across various locations in Israel, three of these sites being a prominent air hub, an information collection center, and a logistical base. These targets reportedly came under attack unbeknownst to the public. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF), when questioned about these incidents and the success of missile interceptions, declined to comment specifically, but ensured all relevant units maintained their functionality during the operation.
In addition to these, 36 known strikes bypassed Israel’s air defense, leading to significant harm to both residential and commercial architecture. Although these missile attacks caused devastating damages to housing risked civilian life, it’s noteworthy that the country’s evolved alert system and the disciplined behavior of the country’s population with the usage of bomb shelters and safe spaces limited fatalities to just 28.
Preliminary examinations indicate an increase in the successful penetration of Iranian missiles throughout the initial eight days of the twelve-day conflict. The rate of these successful attacks rose steadily, despite most projectiles being intercepted. Experts remain unsure of the reasons behind this phenomenon, speculating factors to include the possible rationing of limited interceptor missile supplies on the Israeli side and the potential use of advanced tactics and more sophisticated missiles by Iran.
The Iron Dome, while best known as Israel’s premier air defense system, is, in fact, primarily designed to counter short-range threats like mortars, it forms merely one segment of Israel’s comprehensive, ‘layered’ air defense design. The system’s middle-tier defense, David’s Sling, is specifically optimized for intercepting drones and missiles with a range of up to 300 kilometers. At its pinnacle sits the Arrow system, designed to neutralize long-range ballistic missiles before they re-enter the atmosphere.
During the conflict lasting twelve days, Israel’s defenses were supplemented by two ground-based THAAD missile-defense mechanisms from the U.S. and interceptors launched from U.S. vessels in the Red Sea. It has been estimated that the U.S. deployed at least 36 THAAD interceptors during the conflict, each costing roughly $12 million.
In the small, heavily populated country of Israel, home to 9.7 million residents, the rarity of missile penetration has caught its populace off-guard. As the country grappled with the breach of its esteemed air defenses, notices were issued stating that these defenses were ‘not airtight’. This unexpected violation of their securities has left approximately 15,000 citizens without homes, many of whom have since been dispersed across hotel accommodations throughout the country.
This unsettling series of events has stirred additional stir within the larger populace, leading to a growing suspicion of military facilities being targeted. Officials from Oregon State University, who are still actively assessing the extent of missile damage, announced their intention to publish their detailed findings in the coming weeks. Their damage analysis makes use of radar data to detect alterations in the local infrastructure due to blasts.
Understanding from the data shows that while the collective US-Israeli defense systems did well generally, by the seventh day of the war, they allowed passage to approximately 16% of incoming projectiles. This figure is consistent with an earlier IDF assessment that placed the success rate of the defense system at ’87 per cent’.
The Iranian establishment and state-controlled media are now leveraging footage of missiles breaching Israel’s defenses in an effort to convince local audiences of their victory in the conflict. Cartoon renderings in local media mock the Iron Dome, playing revolutionary tunes over clips of missiles striking Israeli cities.
Iranian officials attribute the ability to penetrate Israel’s air defenses to a strategy of simultaneously employing drones and missiles, asserting this confused the defense systems. Mixing quick missiles with slower drones, they say, resulted in divided attention from the defenses. An Iranian officer explained that the main aim of deploying [suicide drones] was to keep busy Israel’s defense systems, admitting that while many of these projectiles were intercepted, they still generated confusion.
Estimates suggest that a considerable portion of Iran’s ballistic missile stockpile remains intact. Even by Israeli assessments, only half of the missile launchers were destroyed in the course of the twelve-day skirmish, meaning sizeable missile stocks hold potential for future engagements. According to an Israeli military official, they managed to dismantle over 200 out of 400 launchers, causing a disruption in Iran’s missile operations.
Furthermore, they gave an estimate that, at the onset of the conflict, Iran had somewhere between 2,000 to 2,500 ballistic missiles. However, Iran seemed to be rapidly adopting a mass-production strategy, which could potentially see their missile reserves increase exponentially to totals ranging from 8,000 to even 20,000 in coming years.
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