In the wake of its recent military defeat, the Islamic Republic of Iran finds itself in a vulnerable state that seemingly paves the way for hard-line ideologists, who display a strong resistance to compromising on their nuclear development plans. Such wars typically entail repercussions, specifically for those who end up on the losing side. Although this swift, 12-Day War involving the U.S. and Israel is far from the deeply devastating 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War that claimed the lives of hundreds of thousands, the impacts are nonetheless substantial.
The Iran-Iraq War, despite its immense toll, provided the Iranian regime with the crucible necessary for the establishment of institutions vital for the endurance of the revolution. By contrast, the recent 12-Day War has undermined this hierarchical structure, potentially paving the way for a new era of leadership. This change could foreshadow signs of trouble for Israel and the United States.
Presently, Iran’s ruling power is staunchly characterized by its combative stance against both Israel and the United States. Despite Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s attempts to portray the recent conflict as a victory against Israel, the harsh reality of defeat is indisputable. This failure does not breed a sense of achievement, but rather stirs sentiments of embarrassment, significantly weakening the supreme leader’s stature.
In the aftermath of this defeat, there emerges the potential for an influx of lesser-known, uncompromising zealots into the power fold. These individuals, primarily Revolutionary Guard officers who earned their stripes in the Syrian uprising ten years prior, demonstrate an unwavering resolve regarding the regime’s nuclear ambitions, revealing a startling prospect for Israel and America.
During the Islamic Revolution (1978-79), Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini and his senior aids were not mysterious figures to those familiar with Iranian history. Their goals and motivations were made clear. However, the potential new leaders of the current era are relatively unexplored and lack an extensive paper trail. Drawn from militant factions like the Paydari Front and the lower ranks of the Revolutionary Guards, their outlook remains largely obscure.
Children of a hard-line ideology, they seek guidance from religious fanatics such as Saeed Jalili, a former nuclear negotiator known for his rigid stance against any form of compromise. Occupying positions in security agencies, parliamentary seats, and running educational institutions, they’ve crafted their own clandestine shadow government, building an ideologically consistent ecosystem.
The weakened position of the supreme leader provides the hardliners with an opportunity to gain more influence. Had Khamenei taken the advice of voices within the Revolutionary Guards to test a nuclear weapon months ago, it might have deterred foreign attacks. Today however, the octogenarian leader must grapple with rising dissatisfaction from experienced soldiers.
Despite the regime’s attempts to appeal to Iranian nationalism, the likelihood of winning back the trust and loyalty of the Iranian citizens is diminishing. Their brutal suppression of the Women, Life, Freedom movement in 2023, which involved the torture and murder of young women, has severely damaged any chances of reinforcing societal bonds of trust towards the regime.
Indeed, the incoming Revolutionary Guards have staked their reputation on the repeated brutalization of fellow Iranians. Aside from this, they have demonstrated an unwavering commitment to the nuclear program and continue to uphold the strategies posed by Qassem Soleimani, a high-ranking, fallen member of the Guard struck down by American missiles in 2020.
While the Israeli onslaught that commenced on October 7, 2023, has significantly disabled Soleimani’s proxy-based ‘axis of resistance’ against Israel and the U.S., the ambition of developing nuclear weapons remains alive. This reality implies that the Islamic Republic will likely shy away from developing large nuclear enrichment plants or relying on mountains for defense.
Given the heightened capabilities of U.S. and Israeli surveillance technology, it is unlikely that Iran would consider constructing new underground facilities due to the extensive time and effort required. Instead, the regime may opt for smaller, easily hidden surface facilities while simultaneously focusing on countering foreign intelligence operations within Iran.
In their bid to remove spies from within, Iranian officials have embarked on a nationwide manhunt, known for its ruthless counterintelligence measures. While such draconian tactics may temporarily halt nuclear construction, it could, in the long run, pave the way for a covert nuclear program that neither Washington nor Jerusalem can restrain.
The situation has devolved into a cat-and-mouse game between various intelligence agencies. In the Cold War era, continuous confrontations between Western and Soviet intelligence agencies were commonplace, but rarely were the stakes as high as they are now between Iran and Israel.
Israel does not fully believe in the deterrent power of the doctrine of ‘mutually assured destruction’ when it comes to religious hardliners in Iran. The important question, then, is whether there are sufficient Iranians willing to risk everything by standing in opposition to mullahs and the Revolutionary Guards in their pursuit of nuclear capabilities.
The Israeli intelligence community, Mossad, faces another challenge: can they garner enough information about these new, staunchly anti-Zionist figures in the Iranian elite to either thwart or sway them? Although discovering their residences might be a simpler task, getting to know more about their lives and motivations will be a much more complex endeavor.
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