Recent military setbacks have created an opportunity for uncompromising forces within Iran to rise to power, potentially leading to an obstinate pursuit of nuclear prowess. Any conflict, especially one that ends in defeat can have significant implications, particularly for the losing side. This holds true for the Islamic Republic of Iran in the wake of a 12-day conflict with Israel and the U.S. This latest conflict, though it lacked the societal severity of the Iran-Iraq War of 1980-88, has nonetheless shaken the very foundations of the ruling institutions.
The Iran-Iraq War, despite causing immense loss and suffering, paved the way for the Iranian regime to build administrative mechanisms that assured the continuation of their revolution. In stark contrast, the 12-day conflict has undermined the leaders of these institutions, potentially giving rise to a new generation of hard-liners. This development could spell trouble for both Israel and America, given that the reference point for the current regime’s ideology remains its resistance against Israel and the U.S.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his followers have sought to assert a sense of victory over Israel in the recent conflict. Behind the facade of bravado, however, is an unavoidable sense of humiliation rather than pride. This feeling brings with it the potential to diminish the influence of the supreme leader significantly.
The fallout from their military failure may push obscure, unyielding believers – Revolution Guard officers who proved their mettle during the Syrian rebellion – into the limelight. For Israel and America, the ones to watch out for are the ones who hold steadfast to the regime’s nuclear ambitions. Beyond their extremism, little else is known about these up-and-comers.
Looking back at the Islamic Revolution between 1978-79, figures like Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini and his senior colleagues broadcast their intentions openly, leaving little room for ambiguity. They documented their ideas and intellectual journeys extensively as they aged. By contrast, the rising leaders remain largely an enigma, having left a scant record behind. These men have seemingly no interest in justifying their ideology, neither to their fellow countrymen nor to the rest of the world.
Their ranks include members from militant factions like the Paydari Front and the second rung of the Revolutionary Guards. Influential figures such as Saeed Jalili, known for his religious fervour and refusal to compromise, guide them. Roles in the security entities, seats within the parliament, and control of education centers – these men have infiltrated all these areas. They have established a parallel government and ideological network away from prying eyes.
The declining position of the supreme leader has provided these men with a foothold. If Khamenei had taken the advice of voices within the Revolutionary Guards to conduct a nuclear test, Iran may have deterred potential foreign attacks. Today, the octogenarian has to deal with the risky discontent brewing among combat-experienced soldiers.
In spite of the regime’s attempts to evoke Iranian nationalism, it’s improbable they can reclaim the respect of their citizens. People are no longer inclined to view the clergymen and their enforcement arms as noble embodiments of their national identity or faith. Using force to suppress the nationwide Women, Life, Freedom movement in 2023, which included acts of abuse and murder, only severed the connection between the people and the state even further.
Bombing campaigns by Israel and America won’t repair these severed ties. In fact, the rising cadres of the Revolutionary Guards have displayed an all-too-willing readiness to use force against their own compatriots. Besides this, they have underscored their two core commitments: a nuclear weapons program and the proxy war strategy conceived by their fallen idol, Qassem Soleimani, who was killed by an American missile strike in Baghdad in 2020.
Israel’s relentless offensive against these proxies since October 7, 2023, have left Soleimani’s ‘axis of resistance’ against the Jewish state and the U.S. significantly weakened, possibly irreversibly so. Yet, their ambitions for nuclear weaponry remain very much alive.
Looking ahead, it is unlikely that Iran will lean on building large enrichment sites such as Natanz or rely on mountains for protection of their atomic assets. The superiority of American and Israeli satellite and aerial surveillance, along with lengthy construction times for new underground facilities, make these options less viable. Smaller, easily hidden surface facilities now appear to be the more pragmatic choice, as long as they can weed out foreign spies within Iran.
In response, the clerics have initiated a comprehensive sweep nation-wide aimed at purging their administration of potential infiltrators. These harsh counterintelligence operations could temporarily slow down nuclear construction, but in the long run, they could facilitate a secretive nuclear program that neither Jerusalem nor Washington can halt.
This situation has created a high-stakes cat-and-mouse game between Iranian and Israeli intelligence. Though spying operations were commonplace during the Cold War between Western and Soviet Intelligence services, rarely did survival hang so delicately in the balance. Israelis find less comfort in the doctrine of mutually assured destruction when dealing with Islamic Republic zealots.
The vital question remains: Are there enough Iranians in senior positions who are willing to risk it all to prevent the clergy and the Revolutionary Guards from acquiring nuclear weaponry? Even if Israel has the technical ability to intercept official Iranian communications, this question continues to be a pressing concern for the Mossad.
Another significant query relates to how much can be learned about fiercely anti-Zionist newcomers in the Iranian ruling class to either manipulate or challenge them. Identifying their locations, while crucial, is just the start. Understanding their motivations and plans will be the bigger challenge.
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