On the 3rd of July, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian commanded the nation to discontinue its collaboration with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). This decision followed a string of aerial bombardments by the US on three crucial nuclear installations in Iran amidst ongoing air conflicts with Israel.
The Iranian Foreign Ministry has stated that the ensuing dialogues with the IAEA will be intrinsically ‘technical’ and ‘complex’. This conversation would be the first of its kind since Iran severed its connections with the aforementioned organization only a month ago.
The relationship between Iran and the IAEA took a turn for the worse after Israel and the United States launched a twelve-day aerial offensive in June, primarily targeting key nuclear facilities located within Iran.
On June 12, just before the start of the air raid by Israel over Iran, which acted as a catalyst for the war, the IAEA board declared that Iran had contravened its commitments to non-proliferation. However, a statement regarding the planned visit by the deputy head of the agency, explicitly excluding any expected access to Iranian nuclear sites, was not immediately released by the IAEA.
Regarding the potential for a meeting with Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi, the spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Esmail Baghaei, did not rule out the possibility. He did, however, caution that it is premature to forecast the outcomes of these intricate and technical discussions.
The IAEA’s silence during the hostilities in June was a point of contention, according to Baghaei. He critiqued the organization for its lack of an appropriate response, such as condemning the actions against a nation under constant surveillance that saw its peaceful facilities become the focus of the air strikes.
Echoing Baghaei’s sentiment, Aragchi had previously shared that establishing a fresh framework of cooperation was necessary with the agency. The implementation of this would need a nod from Iran’s topmost security structure, the Supreme National Security Council, thus implying a further restriction of the inspector’s capabilities to monitor Tehran’s uranium enrichment programme.
In a significant escalation, President Masoud Pezeshkian directed, on July 3, the halt of Iran’s involvement with the IAEA after witnessing US attacks on major Iranian nuclear locations while Israel was concurrently engaged in an aerial warfare with Iran, leading to the deaths of around 1,100 individuals, including numerous military officials.
In response, Iran executed strikes that ended up killing 28 individuals in Israel. Iran has deployed limited inspections by the IAEA as a negotiation strategy with the West in the past, highlighting their unfamiliar, yet pivotal role in these conversations.
How these deliberations between Tehran and Washington regarding a settlement for Iran’s nuclear program will restart is still unknown at this point. However, it’s evident that the stakes, especially considering the latest escalation and the already-stressed relationships among the parties involved, are higher than ever before.
While Iran previously conceded to restricted IAEA inspections as a lever in their negotiations with Western powers, the future of such strategies remains nebulous. As the political pendulum swings, the question stays – What next for Iran’s nuclear program?
Historically, both the intelligence agencies of the United States and the IAEA determined that Iran last had a systematic nuclear weapons program back in 2003. However, more recent developments cast a shadow of uncertainty over this assessment.
In a worrying indication of Iran’s potentially militaristic ambitions, Tehran had been reportedly enhancing the purity of uranium up to 60%. Such a level of enrichment is only a marginal, technical step away from the 90% required to produce weapons-grade materials.
Iran’s suspension of its cooperation with the IAEA, following armed conflicts and air strikes, sets a concerning precedent in the international dialogues on non-proliferation. The opacity and complexity surrounding Iran’s recent actions only add to the immediacy of addressing this issue.
The coming days will prove critical as the world awaits the unfolding of the ‘technical’ and ‘complicated’ talks between Iran and the IAEA. Emphasizing the delicacy of the situation, the details of these discussions may shape the future of non-proliferation strategies in Iran and beyond.
As the field of geopolitics becomes increasingly convoluted due to Tehran’s actions and decisions, it is imperative that the global community pays close attention to how the tale of Iran’s nuclear program unfolds.
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