William Henry Harrison, America’s ninth president exhibited a unique paradox as he was the last president born under British rule and yet, remarkably, the first to win the White House under the Whig Party’s banner. His inaugural address was the most extensive in our history, running close to two hours, yet his presidency was cut short, being the first president to pass away while in office, after only 31 days. Interestingly, he was also the last politician to experience a loss in his initial presidential run and succeed in the subsequent one. Prior to him, only Thomas Jefferson and Andrew Jackson accomplished this feat. Fast forward to Richard Nixon, he had to wait quite a while for a comeback victory.
Curiously, true comeback champions like Grover Cleveland and Donald Trump, both who managed to win, lose, and then again regain power, are rare in American political history. Generally, those who lost their first run, and quickly tried their luck again in the ensuing elections, found themselves facing defeat once more. This was true for both Democratic and Republican candidates, including the likes of Adlai Stevenson and Thomas Dewey, who ran twice unsuccessfully.
Similarly, candidates like Henry Clay and William Jennings Bryan suffered the same fate even after making three consecutive runs. This essentially proves an obvious but harsh reality: when it comes to presidential elections, voters tend not to give a second chance to those they’ve already rejected.
In light of this reality, the future looks particularly bleak for Kamala Harris. She has recently revealed that she will not be vying for the position of California governor, fuelling gossip about her interest in another presidential bid. But judging by the tested and proven norms of history, her chances appear rather slim.
Adding to her woes, the Democratic Party is ensnared in a deep popularity crisis. Its net favorability rating is in the negative at 30 points: almost triple that of its Republican counterpart. The levels of unpopularity being exhibited currently by the Democrats haven’t been paralleled in the last three decades.
The Democrats are locked in a onwards spiral of discontent, and this internal disquiet is not singular. The progressives accuse the party of not putting up much of a fight, while the centrists blame the party for fighting the wrong causes, arguing that the Democrats have shifted too far left on cultural wars and identity politics.
At the heart of these two seemingly disparate objections is one common sentiment: a burning desire for victory. According to them, a candidate who can appeal to Trump voters and widen the Democratic constituency is the only formula for success.
Harris, the chosen diverse candidate in 2024, has been largely unsuccessful in this regard. Despite Biden’s express intention to place a woman, and later, an African American running mate, Harris’s appeal to voters has remained weak. The issue isn’t to do with her gender or ethnicity, but instead, her inability to connect with voters and broaden the Democratic base.
Despite losing not due to low turnout from Democrats, but because her appeal was lacklustre to a dynamic electorate, Harris seems clueless. Her speeches are reminiscent of a dutiful college dean in a small liberal arts institution, lacking the punch of authenticity.
Her convictions, apart from reproductive rights, seem more like they were crafted by focus groups than heartfelt beliefs. Old school strategies like these are no longer effective for engaging an electorate yearning for genuineness.
Harris further undermined her public perception by aligning herself so tightly with Biden, notoriously when she refused to distance herself from him. Her decision to choose Stephen Colbert’s ‘The Late Show’ for her first interview post-office added to this perception. And while this may play well to Colbert’s zealously committed audience, it’s not the demographic the Democrats need to engage to secure a win.
This, unfortunately for the Democrats, proves an unwelcome reality: should they choose to re-nominate her, Harris will likely be relegated to a political trivia question. And its answer certainly wouldn’t identify her as the 48th president of the United States.
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