Samuel Clemens, better known as Mark Twain, was often cited saying: ‘There are lies, there are damned lies, and there are statistics.’ As we find ourselves in late 2025, citizens of the United States have comprehended that a pinch of skepticism is necessary when analyzing government statistics, concerning crime data especially. Rewinding to June 2024, an instance displayed the unreliability of the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s annual Uniform Crime Report, which was previously revered as the gold standard in crime data.
The role of the Biden administration had caused a significant dent in public trust in the FBI, indeed the government as a whole. The Trump administration, in its second term, is committed to rebuilding this trust; however, it is neither straightforward nor swift. Despite the trust issues, it should be acknowledged that the Democrats’ actions unwittingly eroded the faith in their party, plummeting it to all-time lows.
In the aforementioned 2024 report, I highlighted an alarming trend: numerous cities, predominantly those governed by the Democrats, had ceased submitting crime reports to the FBI. The absence of reports was tantamount to the non-existence of crimes. During 2024, an estimated 7000 agencies chose to withhold such critical information. This non-reporting was predominantly focused within major population centers, as the graph demonstrated.
By 2022, even the first and second largest cities of Wyoming refrained from reporting, although their contribution to the overall data, being minute compared to California and New York City, was relatively negligible. The rationale behind the non-disclosure from cities was twofold, markedly highlighting the blue/red ideological divide.
Democrat-led cities and states refrained from sharing their escalating crime rates primarily to prevent exposure of the failure of their policies. More alarmingly, it laid bare the unsettling reality that the rampant crime was a conscious choice. Democrat-governed cities didn’t necessarily have all the hallmarks of violence and crime seething within them. The increasing regard for criminals as important constituents of these states gave a grim picture.
Cities and states controlled by Republicans, observing this trend, also chose not to report, driven by the degradation of trust in the FBI. Their skepticism stemmed not only from doubts about the FBI’s commitment to impartial law enforcement but also its ability to meticulously maintain crime data. They remained well aware that in comparison to the high crime rates of Democrat-strongholds, their relatively low crime rates appeared worse when manipulated data was accepted and disseminated by the FBI.
On the surface, a national platform providing reliable crime data seems beneficial. Deeper scrutiny, however, reveals that the most authentic source of such information is the grassroots level – the residents of metropolises such as Washington DC. Despite being reassured about the absence of crime, they, on the contrary, encounter crime firsthand with experiences of carjackings or shootings occurring frequently.
Following the recent upsurge in controversy regarding significant alterations in unemployment data by the Labor Department, the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) has published a report on state violent crime rates that has raised eyebrows. However, their claims seemed dubious in the face of contradicting data reported by Phoenix PD. The largest police force in Arizona testified a jump in homicide rates by 42% and overall violent crime by 9% during the period under discussion.
The credibility of BJS came under fire following these discrepancies. BJS relies on the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS), which gathers data not from law enforcement but from direct interaction with victims of crime. In principle, this method should yield more accurate results. However, the pandemic-induced hysteria of 2020 and 2021 led to the suspension of in-person interviews with crime victims by the Census Bureau. This resulted in the generation of moot data for those two years.
In 2020, despite the FBI reporting a staggering 30% rise in murder cases, setting an unfortunate record, the NCVS unsurprisingly registered a decline in violent crime. This is a predictable outcome when victims are not consulted. The 30% rise seems plausible, even when one considers the refusal of about 7000 law enforcement agencies to contribute data to the FBI, given the attempts of Democrat-led agencies to conceal their surges in crime.
In conclusion, the inability of statistical agencies to critically examine their methodologies and their execution can produce misleading results. A culture of groupthink often hinders such agencies from investigating whether the data churned out by a specific process is sound or not.
President Donald Trump, in his second administration, has set out to restore faith in the government, a fundamental yet noble intent. Yet, it’s a task that requires an enormous investment of time and effort. The road to rebuilding the trust that was imprudently and deliberately squandered will be a long one indeed.
The post The Breach of Trust in Government Statistics: An Examination appeared first on Real News Now.
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