On a celebrated day of negotiations, President Donald Trump found himself face-to-face with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the landmark Billy Mitchell room at the prominent Joint Base Elmendorf Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska. It was on the Friday of August 15, 2025. The pointing topic of discussion was maneuvering an end to the Russian aggression against Ukraine. The circumstances were attaining a decisive juncture, reflecting the strategic results of President Trump’s ceaseless efforts.
The negotiations were not without some enticing prospects; Trump insinuated that Russia was enticed by the possibility of integrating into the U.S. economy. Revealing a probable incentive, he acknowledged Russia’s desire for a ‘piece’ of the US financial machine. Expressing interest, President Putin echoed the lure of potential economic collaborations, even in the Arctic, while in Alaska.
However, the proposed plans should be approached cautiously. Any relaxation of the sanctions, or an open invitation to Putin’s administration to enter the economies of America, should be regarded as a major concession. It’s a move which could ultimately recoil onto the United States. Overcoming its economic hardships, Russia could need western modern technology to fully leverage its natural resources.
Such partnership serves little promise to American enterprises considering participation; their returns could be modest amidst the vast and complex geopolitical risks. Particularly in the Arctic, Russia’s dependence on external technical expertise for extracting resources remains apparent. Sanction-induced restrictions on their access to western financing and technologies have hampered their formerly ambitious plans on Arctic LNG.
Similarly, Russia’s aviation sector faces dependence, leading to over half of its Airbus fleet grounded due to shortages in parts and components. Contrary to their need, they have resorted to importing spare Airbus and Boeing parts through third-party nations exploiting sanction loopholes, with the total import cost of $1.2 billion.
A historical analysis reveals that Russia has not been an indispensable trading ally for the United States. The trade reports of 2021 testify that the US had totaled only $6.4 billion in exports to Russia, while importing goods worth $29.7 billion. On the contrary, America exported goods worth $151 billion and hosted $504 billion in imports from China within the same year. In terms of trade activity, Russia played an undeniably minor role.
When Putin initiated full-scale invasion further diminished U.S.-Russia trade by 90%, the impact was barely perceivable by the American populace. In a discernible and enlarging landscape, there’s scant likelihood of U.S.-Russian trade experiencing significant growth in the immediate future. In fact, America can either produce or source from other countries most goods that Russia currently produces.
An instance to note is that of enriched uranium for civilian reactors, where Russia stands as a 24 percent supplier for the U.S., but it’s far from dominating the market. Similar redundant dependency can be seen in the chemical fertilizer trade. In the event of a shortfall, the U.S. can rely on alternative suppliers such as Canada rather than depending heavily on Russia.
The familiar pattern can be traced back to the Cold War era, when the United States covertly purchased the titanium ore required for building the SR-71 blackbird from the Soviet Union under the covert operations of shell companies and falsified end-use certificates. Despite the availability of resources, American companies’ interest in stepping back into Russia remains unappetizing.
The appeal of doing business in Russia is marred by its authoritarian regime marked with systemic corruption. By imposing strict limits on foreign ownership and looming threats of asset seizures by Kremlin, this non-conducive business environment acts as a red flag for U.S. firms considering operations in Russia. Coupled with this is the significant risk of damaging the company’s reputation within the American public’s perception.
Polls taken in spring reveal that only a negligible 3 percent of Americans view Putin in a favorable light. Bearing these facts in mind, even if the war were to be halted, it wouldn’t play a significant role in reducing the associated political risks. The wavering nature of U.S.-Russian relations and the uncertainty of the moment would deter most American businesses from taking advantage of any opening.
Potential partnerships around crucial rare earth minerals also appear bleak. Even though Russia boasts the world’s fifth largest reserves of these minerals, last year their production barely amounted to 1 percent of globally produced total, their contribution just above Madagascar and considerably lower than China or the U.S.
With a foreboding climate, over-regulated business landscape, and long-waited return on investment, there’s little to persuade U.S. investors to venture into Russia’s rare earth extraction. Furthermore, the concerns around processing may not be resolved since 92 percent of the refining capacity remains in Chinese hands.
Addressing the stakes and considering the long time horizons, it would be more strategic for U.S. businesses to focus on securing supplies of these indispensable components within the U.S. or from its allies, rather than enhancing the capacity of a potential adversary. Championship in this sector does not lie in Russia’s favor.
Even under a potential ceasefire agreement between Ukraine and Russia, a surge in Putin’s arsenal aimed at the West will likely continue. Allowing Russia to access western technology legally—and fueling its military advancement and pacification of its elite population—hardly seems like a path towards lasting peace. In fact, it’s even more important for the U.S. to tread carefully.
The russian landscape – in the lens of U.S. businesses – remains an illusion, as it has throughout history. Moscow is indeed thirsty for Western capital and technology, but the payback for those engaging with it is typically meager. Therefore, the conclusion stands–dipping into Russia’s waters still appears to bring more harm than good.
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