The recent climax at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Tianjin, China, symbolises an evolving global hierarchy. Pictures of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Chinese President Xi Jinping exchanging cheerful greetings subtly highlight a surprising geopolitical shift that started in 2025. Set against the deal for the Power of Siberia 2 (POS-2) pipeline that will transmit Russian gas to China, this meeting cannot be overshadowed as mere diplomatic theatre. It demonstrates a consequential shift in energy geopolitics, undermining Europe’s significance, creating hurdles for US LNG exports and negating the vision by Zbigniew Brzezinski of US supremacy over Russia, mainly formulated in the chaotic 1990s. The US’s aspiration for Eurasian dominance has led to strained relations with India, pushed Russia and China towards stronger alliance and left Germany – a formerly vigorous industrial nation – weakened. A narrative of conceit, bad judgement and unforeseen aftermath unfolds from this situation.
The Tianjin summit was a revelation of the newly formatted geopolitical dynamics. The camaraderie among the leaders of India, Russia, and China, representing three of the world’s leading economies, indicated a strengthening unity, backed by cooperative energy ventures, not just diplomatic overtures. The agreement for POS-2, a 50 billion cubic meter pipeline planned to transport gas from Russia’s Yamal fields to China through Mongolia, embodies this reorientation. The new venture, POS-2, diverges from Power of Siberia 1 by sourcing gas from the very Arctic reserves in Yamal that were substantial to Germany’s industrial strength for numerous years. Historically, German prosperity pivoted around an agreement to exchange cheap Russian gas for high-quality German manufactured goods, as manifested in Willy Brandt’s Ostpolitik and Germany’s ascent as the economical titan of Europe.
The shift in Russia’s strategy to Asia, propelled by Western sanctions after the 2014 annexation of Crimea and acutely pronounced by the 2022 Ukrainian invasion, is now coming to fruition. With the establishment of POS-2 and the development of existing pipelines, Russia is in a position to supply China with up to 100 billion cubic meters of gas annually after POS-2 goes live in 2030, although this volume is less than its previous peak exports to Europe. Adjustments in route and lower prices, however, do not represent lost opportunities, but rather augment Russia’s economic security following the Nordstream pipeline setback. This strategic change also reduces China’s dependency on costly seaborne LNG, mitigating China’s vulnerability extent to US naval predominance in strategic locations like the Strait of Hormuz and Straits of Malacca.
From India’s standpoint, the Tianjin summit was a platform to express defiance. Indian Prime Minister Modi indicated a policy change following aggressive tariffs enacted by the Trump administration as an answer to India’s purchase of Russian crude oil. Reports of Modi declining calls from then President Trump were unheard of, furthering India’s stand against hypocritical US sanctions, as stated by India’s Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar during his Moscow visit. This course of action by India reveals a fortitude not to be subdued, as they not only maintain diplomatic relationships with Russia and China, but also plan to strengthen their imports of Russian oil, defying US secondary sanctions.
In contradiction to the intended effects, the ongoing sanctions seem to be backfiring on the enforcers. As Russia appears far from collapse, the countries of the European Union, including major economies like France, UK and especially Germany, seem to be approaching a critical impasse politically and economically. Russia, instead of showing signs of distress, is expanding its energy and trade relations with China, India and other countries such as Turkey and Brazil. Although still under discussions, POS-2 signals Russia’s triumph in seeking alternative markets for its gas, while China overcomes its long-term hesitation to depend more on Russia’s energy pool.
Perceived as a baffling misstep in the saga, is the U.S. policy towards India. The Indo-American collaboration, which had been intensifying over two decades due to shared concerns surrounding the rise of China and India’s economic growth, took a U-turn. The US’s decision to impose an additional 25% tariff on Indian exports to the U.S. was not reciprocated with China or Europe, despite their extensive imports from Russia. If the strained relationship between India and the US isn’t repaired soon, the repercussions might be serious. India not only refuses to bend to US sanctions but is increasingly aligning with the BRICS, proposing a potential alternative financial and trade framework to the Western-dominated systems.
In an attempt to penalise Russia, the EU ended up putting itself in a disadvantageous position. By choosing to depend on high-priced LNG imports over Russian gas openly available at its borders, Europe inflicted economic damage unto itself. Consequently, Germany, previously the economic driver of Europe, now faces deindustrialisation and growing unemployment. The reliance on costly LNG from the US and Qatar has spiked energy costs and decreased competitiveness. The shift of Yamal gas to China is not only securing a new market for Russia but is also a hit to US energy export aspirations.
The thirst for dominance manifested by the West has planted the seeds of its own decline. The global energy landscape won’t be the same hereafter, exhibiting yet another chapter in the world’s geopolitical evolution.
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