The narrative that has been endlessly spun since the November elections attributes Kamala Harris’ loss to a multitude of excuses. From insinuations of inadequate time for a sturdy general election campaign to her ill-advised associations with disliked past office holders, and even the insurmountable internal schisms within the Democratic party. All of these excuses and more can be effortlessly rebuffed using insights from the book ‘Fight: Inside the Wildest Battle for the White House’. The authors posit a different cause for Harris’ loss – her glaring failure to present a compelling vision for the country and justify her candidacy. Yet, a more unvarnished truth may simply be that Harris was a subpar candidate who led two unsuccessful presidential campaigns in 2020 and 2024.
With this perspective in mind, it is important to critically assess the potential political dynamics of future elections, including 2026. A recent poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire as part of the States of Opinion Project, also known as the Pine Tree State Poll, provides some valuable insights. Regardless of one’s views on the reliability of this poll, the data brings about some important questions about the political standing of certain figures, including Sen. Susan Collins. The numbers suggest a potential vulnerability for Collins, but her political demise is far from guaranteed.
Currently, Collins faces no high-profile challenges from within her party. The existing declared opponents are likely to pose limited competition. If they manage to make it past the June primaries and Collins becomes the official nominee, we can expect her internal party support to rise substantially.
The dissatisfaction with Collins within the Republican party could be attributed to their desire for a candidate closer to the political ideology of President Trump. However, such a candidate would struggle in a general election in Maine. Collins’ lack of a serious primary challenger can be seen as a reflection of this quandary. The hypothetical ideal candidate doesn’t seem to exist.
The more significant question is not about Collins’ vulnerabilities, rather, if the Democrats can field a candidate capable of defeating her in a general election. As it stands, this is a complex, open-ended question.
Gov. Janet Mills seems to be the safest bet for the Democrats although she is far from being universally admired. Mills has demonstrated electoral success with her gubernatorial campaigns. These campaigns initially showed signs of being challenging, yet she was able to secure comfortable victories against both Shawn Moody and former Gov. Paul LePage. This is being seen by some as a strong point in her favor as she may make a robust U.S. Senate candidate.
The logic behind positioning Mills as a possible candidate is understandable. Mills holds the unique distinction of a successful twice-elected statewide candidate. She positioned herself as a centrist, appealing to a broad array of voters and has shown herself to be from more rural, relatable roots rather than a big city like Portland. Furthermore, she has managed to prove herself as a competent politician on multiple occasions.
However, we must consider whether Mills emerged victorious because she was a superior candidate, or was it because her opponents were dire? Re-nominating LePage in 2022 was a blunder, and the voters clearly didn’t want him back. Conversely, Moody’s run in 2018 suffered due to his limited political experience; his solitary performance previously being a bid for the governor in 2010 as an independent.
Moody, despite being a familiar and amiable businessman, wasn’t shrewd enough to disassociate himself from LePage’s legacy in 2018. This inability to carve his own path was eerily similar to Kamala Harris’ failure to differentiate herself from former President Joe Biden in 2024. Thus, while Mills seems great on paper, it must be remembered that she hasn’t yet faced robust competition in a statewide race.
Susan Collins, on the other hand, has been tested in battles against strong opponents in both primaries and general elections. From Joe Brennan to Sara Gideon, on whom the Democrats squandered millions, Collins has proven her mettle time and time again. If Mills were to face Collins, it would undoubtedly be her stiffest challenge to date.
Notably, unseating an incumbent is no small feat. To even stand a chance against Collins, Mills will have to orchestrate an exceptionally disciplined campaign, raising more funds than she’s ever managed before.
It’s worth noting that while Collins might seem vulnerable now, transforming dismal poll numbers into actual votes is a massive undertaking. Voters need to be convinced not just of the incumbent’s inadequacies, but also that the challenger is genuinely superior.
Mills might appear as a promising choice for the Democrats, but whether she’s equipped to pull off a win is a different question altogether. The evaluation of the race’s outcome doesn’t only hinge on an incumbent’s poor poll numbers, but also on the qualities of both the candidates.
There is a notable quote by former President Joe Biden, wherein he references his father stating, ‘Judge me by the alternative, not the almighty.’ This quote may seem insightful at first, but looking at Biden’s own political trajectory, does it really hold water? For voters, choosing the ‘least worst’ is certainly not an appealing prospect.
The post Another Harris Defeat: No Vision, All Excuses appeared first on Real News Now.
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