The polling landscape in Wisconsin has taken an unexpected turn, according to the latest Marquette University Law School poll. In what can only be described as a surprise, Kamala Harris and ex-President Donald Trump, remarkably, find themselves neck-and-neck. The poll indicates that amongst registered voters, a mere 1% separates them, with Trump claiming 50% led over Harris’s 49%, a result that is anyone’s guess.
The story does not differ significantly amongst likely voters, where 50% reportedly lean towards Harris and 49% towards Trump. Interestingly, however, if voters were to choose between Trump and Biden, the scales would tilt in favor of Trump at 47% with Biden only securing 42% among registered voters. Biden, trailing in the polls, seems to have made room for Harris who has seemingly salvaged what had been a declining public opinion.
The poll director, much to our amusement, believes that Harris has made up for Biden’s shortcomings, alleging that voters’ perceptions of her improving. The reality check, however, is that while Harris might have done a little better than Biden, the fact remains that the party is still far from securing any decisive lead in the polls.
As an intriguing element in this scenario, there’s Robert F. Kennedy Jr. With him factored in, Harris leads Trump by a marginally better two percentage points, 45% to 43%. Kennedy is currently polling at 8% among registered voters in Wisconsin, maintaining a steady, albeit unimpressive trend since June.
The poll involved 877 registered voters, conducted between July 24 and Aug. 1, with a margin of error plus or minus 4.6 percentage points. Another set of 801 likely voters were also surveyed with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 points. It’s noteworthy that starting from the next month, the focus of the poll is set to shift to likely voters as the November election impends.
These poll results mark the inaugural post-Biden iteration, after Biden’s unexpected withdrawal from the race on July 28, which conveniently cleared the path for Harris to become the Democratic nominee. Comparatively, the poll from June showed Biden in a virtual deadlock with Trump in Wisconsin, accompanied by an apparent lack of enthusiasm for Biden among voters.
Frankly, the Democrats seemed to suffer from an increasingly lackluster sentiment towards Biden all year. His performance in the debates seemed to have decimated any enthusiasm, perhaps mirroring a collectively dismal mood. Biden’s decision, therefore, presented an opening for a renewed campaign.
Apparently, voters who classified themselves as ‘very enthusiastic’ still favored Trump – 52% to Harris’s 47%. This indeed is a shrinkage from June, when Trump had a substantial leg up over Biden with 61% to Biden’s 39%. Harris seems to be leading, although minutely, among ‘somewhat enthusiastic’ voters.
Republicans and Democrats display nearly equal levels of enthusiasm now, as per the poll director. However, it’s evident that Republicans bear a slight yet persistent edge in terms of enthusiasm. While the partisan divide remains quite evident, Franklin’s narrative seems to underplay the favor leaning towards Republicans.
It’s almost puzzling to see that 80% of Wisconsin registered voters supposedly agreed with Biden’s decision to bow out of the race. What’s even more curious is that a significant 33% of voters demand Biden’s resignation before his term concludes, while 58% voted that he should trudge along for the remainder of his presidency.
Harris was due to address a rally in Eau Claire just an hour after the survey was released, the second stop on her battleground states tour amidst these polling revelations. It was also anticipated that the Republican vice presidential nominee, JD Vance, was to make his statement in the same city.
Vance’s public image received mixed responses with only 31% viewing him favorably, while 41% unsympathetically, whereas 29% refrained from sharing their opinion. Most Republicans, expectedly, saw Vance as a suitable VP pick, while Independents appeared more divided. Democrats, quite predictably, largely considered Vance to be a poor choice.
Amidst these, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz was introduced as Harris’s running mate after the poll was conducted. As such, Marquette has yet to tap into voters’ opinions about him. Interestingly, Trump revealed Vance as his VP pick at the Republican National Convention, prior to the commencement of the poll.
On policy matters, voters perceived Trump as having an edge on various areas such as immigration, border security, handling the Israel-Hamas war, improving the economy, and managing foreign relations. As for Harris, voters seemed to believe her abilities lie in managing abortion policy, healthcare, ensuring fair and accurate elections, and managing Medicare and Social Security.
While these were domains where Biden previously led, Harris has overtaken him with slightly higher margins. Where Biden’s considerable age was a major concern for the 81-year-old, only 12% echoed the same concerns for the 59-year-old Harris. It’s worth noting that, the 78-year-old Trump is now being perceived as the candidate more burdened by age than Harris.
A core narrative that seems oddly amusing is that the perception of age has now flipped for Trump, with 59% opining he is too old to be president. Where Trump was previously seen as comparatively younger, he now seems to be perceived as being ‘too old’ next to Harris – a narrative that’s reminiscent of how narratives can conveniently shift in politics.
Biden’s Fall from Grace Leaves Unimpressive Harris in Undecided Race Against Trump appeared first on Real News Now.
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