Ultimately, an armistice in Lebanon places a lid on the potential of a sweeping regional conflict. Israel and Hezbollah, the militant group patronized by Iran, have adopted a ceasefire on Tuesday. This agreement seems to be viewed as a victory for the outgoing President Joe Biden, despite his constant mishandling of a tumultuous year in the Middle East. Following the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, the Biden administration’s aim has been one of mitigation, rather than resolution in the Middle East. An approach that led to exacerbating, rather than curbing the conflict.
The skirmishes expanded to Lebanon, even causing crossfire incidents between Israel and Iran. Amidst all this chaos, the Biden administration readily handed over control to Israel, especially during the initial stages of the war. This decision implicitly associated the US with a war that didn’t just gravely affect Hamas, but also heavily burdened the citizens of Gaza. An intensive strike by Israel has led to the death of more than 44,000 Palestinians, a majority of whom were civilians, causing displacement on a massive scale of a population of 2.2 million.
An astonishing 66 percent of the infrastructures in the Strip suffered damage or complete destruction. Throughout the ordeal, Israel set the boundaries and directed the conflict, essentially controlling not just its opponents but also its biggest ally, the US. The situation grew so volatile, it verged on a full-scale war with Iran. However, the US has now managed to orchestrate a ceasefire, although not in Gaza, but in Lebanon and northern Israel.
If the agreement endures, Biden might somewhat salvage his legacy by saying that his administration prevented a region-wide conflict that could have potentially involved the US and other nations. The deal could potentially hold since it aligns with the best interests of all the involved parties. Hezbollah, in dire need of recovery, can utilize this ceasefire to recover.
Israel has successfully eliminated most of its political leaders and battlefield commanders, including Hassan Nasrallah, significantly depleting its arsenal of rockets and missiles. In addition, the outfit’s command-and-control competencies are in a state of ruin, and many of its best fighters have been killed or severely injured. Iran may use this period to rethink its national security strategies. Hezbollah, the crown jewel of Iran’s defensive strategies, has proven incapable of either preventing or effectively combating Israel.
The Lebanese militia found itself unable or unwilling to launch a sustained missile attack on Israeli cities like Haifa or strategic facilities like the Dimona nuclear reactor. Israel is possibly welcoming the ceasefire as it is nearing its limit. Its munitions are reduced and its military is stretched thin, even while the insurgency in Gaza is seemingly gaining momentum.
Israel has accomplished almost all its strategically important objectives in Lebanon and is likely to gain little by prolonging the conflict. Had Israel lingered, it risked rejuvenating Hezbollah in a similar manner that the Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon from 1982 to 2000 led to the establishment of the organization.
Both sides showed a clear interest in toning down the conflict, enabling the mediators to accomplish a ceasefire. In stark contrast, the conflict in Gaza continues since both parties deem it politically beneficial. Unlike their stance on Gaza, the Israeli military and the public are keen to conclude their conflict with Hezbollah, especially on favorable terms.
Hezbollah is so badly broken that it was ready to agree to conditions that could have previously been considered drastic. The militia will pull out its personnel and heavy equipment up to the Litani River, about 15 miles north from the Israeli border, as mandated by the UN resolution ending the 2006 conflict. The Lebanese army and UN peacekeepers will move in to maintain order and prevent Hezbollah’s return.
Israel has agreed to a gradual withdrawal from Lebanon; although the agreement states that both Israel and Lebanon retain their ‘inherent right of self-defense.’ This is essentially a green light for Israel to launch strikes on Hezbollah if there are breaches in the ceasefire terms. Hezbollah’s and Iran’s acceptance of such a skewed arrangement indicates Israel’s military superiority and its decisive victory in this round of the conflict.
Biden’s administration is leaving a smoldering but not quite burning Middle East to Donald Trump. Trump’s staff absurdly proposes that his re-election is the primary reason for the ceasefire. Personally, Biden’s Gaza-war policy was both indefensible and clumsy, as it didn’t prevent the Israeli invasion of Lebanon, but he leaves office with a somewhat positive achievement to his name – a deal that abstains from the threat of a large-scale, multifront, regional war in the Middle East.
Biden’s Legacy: A Middle East on the Edge of Collapse appeared first on Real News Now.
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