The sentencing of the previous president, Jair Bolsonaro, for spearheading a coup d’état presents a moment of reckoning for the durability of democratic principles in Brazil. The survival of Brazil’s democracy faces a significant threshold, hinging on whether the nation’s conventional conservative factions will uphold their alignments with far-right elements, a pattern seen during Bolsonaro’s tenure. Along with Bolsonaro, the highest court in Brazil has enacted serious punitive measures against seven other co-conspirators, among whom include three military officers of high rank, for their parts in an anti-democratic conspiracy that eventuated in a coup. Bolsonaro himself received a punishment of 27 years and three months, signaling a dramatic chapter in Brazilian history.
However, this is far from the closing chapter of Brazil’s democratic saga. The prosecution and condemnation of Bolsonaro symbolize a milestone achievement in a nation that has seen its fair share of coup d’état attempts, with the military often as the orchestrators, and endured two instances of dictatorship—the longest extending from 1964 to 1985. The Supreme Court’s verdict positions Brazil as one of the few nations to have comprehensively examined, charged, and found culprits of coup attempts guilty following due legal process. Such success fosters a certain level of optimism regarding Brazil’s democratic resilience, especially considering the severe trials it faced during Bolsonaro’s four-year presidency, the most formidable since its reinstatement 40 years ago. However, several questions must be asked when evaluating whether Brazil will fend off potential autocratic endeavors.
Most importantly, will the far-right movement in the country continue to display political vitality and electoral power, considering its main leader’s incarceration? It is also crucial to question the future course that Brazil’s traditional right-wing parties will chart, given their previous alliance with Bolsonaro without actively partaking in the coup attempt. Is there a possibility that they will cut ties with Bolsonaro given their dependency on far-right-leaning voters to counteract President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the impending October 2026 elections? What kind of distortion might this inflict upon internal political dynamics in Brazil?
A comparative analysis of the Brazilian political situation with its United States counterpart may be enlightening. While analogous threads exist between Trumpism and Bolsonarism, as well as their respective leaders, key distinctions should not be overlooked. A case in point is that Brazil’s societal apparatus and judicial system have successfully extricated an autocrat from the realm of politics. One contributing factor is the Brazilian constitution, inspired by historical lessons from two decades of authoritarian rule leading to provisions for democratic self-preservation. Any concerted effort to dismantle democracy is labelled as a crime under Brazil’s legal framework.
Furthermore, the Brazilian far-right faction has not succeeded in coalescing into a dominant political party. Multi-party systems, as seen in Brazil, usually obstruct the establishment of powerful majorities. Trump’s strategy vastly differed; he was able to dominate the Republican Party and eliminate internal opposition. Bolsonaro, on the other hand, had to navigate a fragmented political landscape. The major conservative parties in Brazil had more interest in nurturing their local electoral bases and enhancing their parliamentary composition than in serving an authoritarian leader’s political agenda. Hence, the far-right in Brazil has neither an apparent successor to Bolsonaro nor a controlling stake in any political party.
It is not unexpected, therefore, that right-wing parties, having made significant inroads in city councils, state governments, and the National Congress since 2018, are demonstrating caution in fully supporting Bolsonaro. Current strategies seem to focus on a softer version of amnesty, treading the line between catering to Bolsonaro’s supporters while avoiding a fresh political crisis. They are mindful that the Supreme Court would likely declare any broad amnesty for coup leaders unconstitutional.
Brazilian public opinion deviates from these political calculations notably. A recent societal survey suggests that a majority of 54% oppose the notion of pardon for coup leaders and participants, contrasting with a minority 39% advocating for it. The major test for these parties is identifying a formidable opponent to President Lula in the forthcoming presidential election. To win over the far right without alienating moderate conservative voters requires a delicate balance.
This challenge becomes even more formidable due to the unpredictable nature of Bolsonaro, who remains a significant influencer despite his conviction. Several ambitious right-wing governors make perpetual promises of granting pardon to Bolsonaro upon presidency, a pledge undermined by legal complexities and no guarantee of preferred candidate endorsement by Bolsonaro himself.
In their quest to obtain Bolsonaro’s endorsement, these governors risk alienating centrist voters. While it’s a remote possibility, one must consider a scenario where conservative parties, driven by short-term electoral fears, once again find themselves entwined in a strategy that solely benefits the far right. A radicalized approach could inadvertently improve Lula’s re-election prospects and have significantly adverse consequences for the nation.
The robustness of any democratic structure is invariably dependent on the fidelity of all significant political entities to the constitutional order. As such, the ‘non-Bolsonaro’ conservative factions in Brazil carry a monumental historical responsibility. Navigating the narrow straits of political survival and preventing democratic backsliding in Brazil demands political wisdom and courage in the months to come.
The post Brazil’s Justice: Bolsonaro Sentenced for Spearheading Coup appeared first on Real News Now.
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