The Presidential election dynamics have taken an intriguing turn, with President Biden surrendering his position, and the Democrats opting for Vice President Kamala Harris as their nominee. The Democrats, previously vocal about their discontent with Biden, seemed to quickly convene their hopes around Harris, believing this strategic switch might fuel a greater zeal among supporters, counterbalancing the pro-Republican momentum.
After weeks of deep-rooted disapproval expressed publicly by Democratic officials and donors, the swift rallying behind Harris hints at their optimism. Focused on bridging their enthusiasm deficit with Republicans, this signifies that the Democrats hope their nomination gamble will pay off positively in the presidential contest against Donald J. Trump.
Initial polling data suggests a positive impact from Harris stepping into Biden’s shoes, allowing her to gain some ground against the former president, Mr. Trump. Initial results show Harris performing better than the incumbent but still behind Trump. Registered voters in a recent CNN/SSRS poll put Trump ahead of Harris by a minor 3-point difference (49% to Harris’ 46%). This signified a significant 3-point gain for the Democrats compared to an earlier poll involving Biden.
Harris’ approval ratings improved among demographics crucial to the Democratic Party, earning a substantial gain over Biden’s previous statistics. She registered a 9-point uptick with independents, improved by 8 points among the people of color, and marked a 6-point enhancement with younger voters as well as women compared to Biden’s data from June. These shifts may be indicative of diminishing differences in sentiment towards Trump and Harris, as highlighted by a split sentiment among Harris supporters—50% voting for her against a similar percentage opposing Trump.
Despite some promising numbers, Democrats should remain cautious. Post-Biden’s withdrawal, five public polls conducted show Trump leading in four. According to averages from RealClearPolitics, Trump enjoys a modest 2-point lead on average, reflecting that the shift to Harris hasn’t swung the polling pendulum decisively in the Democrats’ favor.
Another key alarm bell for Harris lies in critical swing states – Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Michigan have Trump in the lead. However, it’s not all gloom for Harris. She surpasses Biden in all aforementioned states by 5 points in Georgia, 4 in Arizona and Wisconsin, and 3 in Michigan and Pennsylvania, as per Emerson polling. If she sustains this momentum, her nomination could potentially boost the Democrats’ prospect of retaining at least one Congressional chamber, despite a possible White House loss.
Harris’ early poll numbers suggest that she has stimulated some of the lost support for the Democrats amidst the recent chaos. Her elevated status is also likely to redefine the strategies adopted by both sides on the run-up to Election Day. Although ascertaining voter turnout is a quintessential predictability challenge, it remains to be seen if Harris can maintain her momentum post-DNC and into the fall season.
However, Harris’ track record casts some shadows over her candidacy. During her previous appearance as a candidate in the 2020 primary, she was forced to bow out before a single vote was cast. The tag of being the ‘most liberal’ Senator could turn out to be a double-edged sword and her far-left position might dissuade moderate voters who could instead gravitate towards a Trump vote.
Harris’ tenure as a prosecutor could stir controversy on both sides of the political divide. While progressives may denigrate her past ‘punitive-first approach’ towards law enforcement, the Trump campaign is already painting Harris as a ‘progressive DA’. Her term as San Francisco DA and California’s AG have been linked to a rise in crime across the state, a point that might resonate strongly with conservative voters.
With the spotlight returning to issues, Harris will have to defend the Biden administration’s record. She will have to address voter concerns over pressing matters like the economy, immigration policies, and abortion. On these fronts, Harris faces significant challenges. Trump commands a distinct voter trust lead over both Harris and Biden on inflation control and overall economic management.
On immigration, Harris faces a distinctive issue. As Biden’s chosen ‘border czar’, Harris has been significantly criticized for her approach to immigration. Her previous comment suggesting that illegal border crossing should be considered a civil offense could deter moderate voters in swing states. Republicans are loading their campaign arsenal with attack ads targeting Harris’s controversial role and inexperienced response to queries regarding border visits.
While Harris does indeed carry some disadvantages, she might gain a slight edge over Biden on one crucial point – abortion. Having been tasked with this issue post the 2022 Dobbs decision, Harris could potentially attract support from younger voters and suburban women, constituencies that might be riled against anti-abortion measures, even in traditionally conservative states such as Kansas.
Summarizing her position, Harris does inject fresh enthusiasm into the Democratic campaign and appears to resonate with women, progressive voters, and younger demographics disenchanted by Biden. However, her lack of experience and far-left policies might deter moderates in key swing states. The ultimate outcome of this switch from Biden to Harris appears as a reset of the presidential race, promising a closely contested battle between Trump and the Democrats.
Democrats Desperate: Cornered into Betting on Kamala Harris appeared first on Real News Now.
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