Rather surprisingly, the Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris appears to overshadow former president Donald Trump in New York according to a recent opinion poll. This comes even after democratic President Joe Biden’s questionable standing in the traditionally democratic state before he bowed out of the presidential race. A new survey from Siena College reveals that Harris, who was hastily promoted to the primary spot just a fortnight ago, claims a lead over Trump by 53% to 39% when voters were asked to pick a side between the two.
The interesting twist comes considering that a survey conducted in June, also by Siena, only placed Biden eight points ahead in New York. This is quite alarming as Joe Biden had taken the state by a mammoth 23 points in the 2020 elections. Points to ponder why such a decline happened? Steven Greenberg from Siena College paints a picture stating that the shift in the Democratic ticket has created quite some ripples, though not entirely dramatic in the electoral race.
The survey in question, conducted telephonically across five days starting July 28 with 1,199 probable voters, was called a week post Biden calling it quits on his re-election intentions. The results that emerged showed Harris demonstrating a stronger hold in the suburbs, notorious for being political battlefields for congress seats.
Past surveys revealed that Biden’s underperformance in the suburbs of New York city had initiated a cold sweat among the Democrats, stirring concerns about potential drag on their candidates in close fights for House seats. Come November, seven pivoting seats in the suburbs and further upstate are up for grabs, upon which hangs the balance of the ruling party in the House next year.
An interesting tidbit: in the June poll, Trump held a seven-point edge over Biden in the suburban belt consisting of Long Island, and the Hudson Valley counties, including Westchester, Rockland, Orange, and Putnam. But the recent survey showed Harris leveling those odds to a 47% to 47% deadlock among suburban voters. Hopeful Democrats might believe this to be wind beneath their down-ballot wings.
The same suburban voters also appeared to lean more towards Democrats when asked about House races in general. Those in favor of a Democratic representative surpassed those preferring a Republican one by three percentage points, overturning the four-point GOP edge from June. Unorthodox, right?
Voters in Upstate, areas in the north and the west of the Hudson Valley suburbs, gave a slight edge to Harris over Trump, and to a Democratic House candidate over a Republican one, each by a fine margin of two points. Perhaps the highlight of the survey was the phenomenal margin in New York City, swaying towards Harris over Trump by an eye-watering 42 points, 67% to 25%.
However, don’t mistake this for a complete democratic victory lap. A good portion of voters expressed a rather pessimistic view expressing that crime, a surge of migrants, and the cost of living, which are key issues of the Republican campaigns, have worsened. A similar sentiment was shared on the issue of affordable housing, with the majority believing the situation had deteriorated.
A more significant percentage of voters, 51% to 39%, deemed the direction of New York to be less than satisfactory, as opposed to those thinking it’s on the right track. Similarly, views on the democratic Governor Kathy Hochul were not entirely complimentary. Divided between 50% unfavorable and 39% favorable ratings, she managed to redeem herself somewhat when inquired about job performance. An almost even divide of 46% approved, while 49% disapproved.
A significant majority expressed their support for a potential ballot proposal coming this fall to include abortion and LGBTQ rights in the state constitution. The so-called Equal Rights Amendment received the nod of approval from a massive 68% versus a mere 23% against—a comfortable 45-point margin. Does this really reflect the reality or just the vocal minority?
Breaking it down further, albeit predictably, the greater approval came from Democrats. However, it’s stunning to learn that 32% of Republicans and 64% of independents were also in favor. In regional terms, considerable majorities from all over showed their support for the amendment—including 62% in the suburbs and 63% upstate. Really now, isn’t it simply an attempt to woo voters with fancy proposals?
In summary, while the polls seem to presently favor the Democrats in New York, particularly Kamala Harris, one must always remain sceptical. After all, polls are derivatives of sampled opinions, and the political landscape is ever-changing. Besides, it must be noted that to use favorable polling results as a measure of true approval would be grossly misleading. After all, it’s not the polls but the actual ballots that truly determine who’s got the American people’s mandate.
And the fact that issues closely associated with Republican campaigns are being increasingly seen as diminishing by the voters indicates that the Democratic narrative may not be as rosy as it seems. There might be cracks in the ‘Blue Wall’ yet. The Democrats can lead in numbers and proposals, but until and unless they effectively address the growing concerns on essential issues, the political tides can turn, and the Trump card might just play out. Stay tuned.
Democrats’ Faux Victory: Harris Breaks Even with Trump in NY Suburban Belt appeared first on Real News Now.
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