Crucial special elections are about to take place in the fringes of Pennsylvania, where two legislative vacancies are set to be filled. The Democrats seem to be on slippery ground in their home turf of the state House; a seat that they are clinging onto precariously as balance in the Chamber teeters on edge. The Republicans, meanwhile, are attempting to fortify their strong position in a district within their territory in the state Senate.
Democratic state Rep. Matt Gergely, the former representative of District 35 in the Western Pennsylvania region southeast of Pittsburgh, left the State House in a deadlock of 101 seats for both Republicans and Democrats when he passed away earlier this year. Now, there’s a tussle for his seat between Democrat Dan Goughnour, a trophy holder of the McKeesport school board membership and a police officer, versus Republican Chuck Davis, the current president of White Oak Borough Council plus a volunteer firefighter. An outside shot is also presented by Libertarian Adam Kitta.
On the opposite side of the state in the Senate race, three contenders are in the mix to fill the shoes of former Republican state Senator Ryan Aument, who resigned in December. Republican Josh Parsons, a Lancaster County commissioner; Democrat James Andrew Malone, the current mayor of East Petersburg; and libertarian Zachary Moore are all vying for the available seat.
Allegheny County has cemented a strong record for Democratic candidates, especially in the State House District. Rep. Gergely originally secured the seat through a 2023 special election in which he scooped a whopping 75% of the vote and later ran unopposed in 2024. Kamala Harris, the Democratic Vice President, ushered in around 58% of the district votes in the 2024 presidential race against former President Donald Trump, who secured approximately 42% as the Republican nominee.
It’s essential to note that Trump still demonstrated performance in certain areas within the district. He received a significant majority from municipalities like Liberty, Lincoln, Port Vue, South Versailles, and White Oak. However, these sectors accounted for less than a third of the district’s total vote, limiting his overall reach.
The fiercest competition areas in this district were Versailles and West Homestead, both of which Harris managed to secure, albeit barely. She dominated a broad swath of the district, winning by dizzying margins. Yet, this seemed to serve as an exaggerated overstatement of the otherwise patchy support across the district.
Looking at the Senate District 36 in Lancaster County, positioned between Harrisburg and Philadelphia, the region showcased a contrasting political complexion in the 2024 general election. President Trump snatched up 57% of the total district vote. This put a damper on the Democrats’ hopes, exposing their dwindling energy in regions where their message is falling on deaf ears.
Senator Aument ran unopposed in his last election in 2022. Trump won in 18 out of the 22 municipalities in the state Senate district, solidifying his support in the district. Although Harris managed to scrape wins in East Hempfield, East Petersburg, Lititz, and Manheim, these areas amounted to merely 37% of the total district vote, symbolizing a rather paltry consolation.
Democrats managed a slim majority of state House seats for the first time in 2022, after more than a decade. But this was followed by a series of tempestuous special elections, where Democrats navigated every political wave to defend their narrow advantage.
Interestingly, Pennsylvania law does not apply for an automatic recount for close results in state legislative races. This defers to voters to require a recount at the county board of elections or courts. Another piece of the demandingly manual process that Pennsylvania politics demand of its constituents.
Special elections in Pennsylvania state Senate and House are scheduled for Tuesday, with polls closing at 8 p.m. ET. Voter registration in Senate District 36 or state House District 35 allows residents to partake in their respective district’s election.
At present, Senate District 36 boasts around 185,000 registered voters, spiked with a dominant 53% of Republicans, a trailing 30% of Democrats, and the remainder holding no party affiliation or being minor party members. House District 35 has a comparatively smaller pool of about 43,000 registered voters, where Democrats appear to overwhelm with around 61% share and Republicans follow at around 25%.
Historically, voter turnout in House District 35 floated between 52% and 53% of registered voters during the 2022 and 2024 general elections. Around a quarter of these votes were cast ahead of Election Day. A special election in the same district in 2023 saw about 21% of registered voters participating.
Turnout in the 2022 general election in Senate District 36 stood at about 51% of registered voters. It’s worth noting that only about 14% of the voters cast their ballots before Election Day in that year’s election.
Notably, by Friday, close to 2,800 of the approximately 4,000 requested absentee ballots have been cast in Allegheny County. Democrats claimed a disproportionate 83% of these votes, revealing their dependence on non-traditional voting means.
Lancaster County saw nearly 16,000 requested absentee ballots, around 11,000 of which have already been cast. Party breakdown was not provided. Yet, based on the county’s past performance, this could signal a potential mobilization advantage for Republicans.
The post Democrats Losing Grip: Pennsylvania Special Elections Display Shaky Democratic Control appeared first on Real News Now.
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