The United States has seen a dramatic 2.2 million-person drop in its foreign-born population in the first seven months of President Donald Trump’s second term, signaling what immigration researchers are calling a historic turning point driven by tighter enforcement, fewer new arrivals, and an uptick in voluntary departures.
A new analysis from the Center for Immigration Studies, conducted by Steven Camarota and Karen Zeigler, highlights a striking decline between January and August of this year. The drop includes a 1.6 million reduction in the estimated illegal alien population — an unmistakable shift many attribute to the Trump administration’s aggressive interior enforcement efforts and rollback of Biden-era catch-and-release policies.
Camarota and Zeigler assert the data is not a statistical anomaly but a reflection of real-world immigration trends shifting under Trump’s renewed emphasis on border security and law enforcement. “We think the evidence is strong that most or all of the decline in the foreign-born population shown in the CPS is real and primarily reflects a reduction in new arrivals and, in particular, a large increase in emigration,” the researchers wrote.
Their report points to multiple factors driving the sharp decline, including:
Massive self-deportation: The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) reports that 1.6 million illegal aliens have voluntarily left the U.S. since January.
Enforcement success: Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has removed over 400,000 illegal aliens this year alone.
Historic border control: FY2025 marked the lowest illegal immigration levels in 55 years, with fewer than 238,000 border apprehensions — a stark reversal from prior record-setting surges under the Biden administration.
End of catch-and-release: For the fifth month in a row, DHS reported zero migrant releases into the interior of the country in September, closing a major loophole used during the previous administration.
The shift is seen by many as a direct result of the Trump administration’s rapid dismantling of Joe Biden’s immigration agenda, especially policies that critics say incentivized illegal crossings and overwhelmed the system. Since returning to office, Trump has prioritized ICE interior operations, reinstated key agreements with Central American countries, and deployed National Guard forces to reinforce southern border control alongside Texas and Arizona.
With the foreign-born population shrinking for the first time in decades and illegal crossings at record lows, immigration hawks see the numbers as a vindication of Trump’s America First approach. Officials inside DHS have called the trend a “course correction” after four years of surging illegal immigration under Democrat control.
Whether these numbers hold through the end of the year remains to be seen. But for now, supporters of tougher immigration enforcement are calling it the start of a “Golden Age” in restoring border integrity and national sovereignty.
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