Historically, the younger demographic in the United States, specifically those aged 18 to 24, has been noted for its lackluster participation in the voting process, both in California and nationwide. The 2020 presidential election saw an increase in turnout among this group, from 39% to 50%, but it still paled in comparison to the overall voter turnout of 66%. In California, these statistics were similar, with only 47% of eligible young voters participating, significantly less than the statewide average of 67% of all eligible voters.
This lackluster turnout could be attributed to various factors, one of the notable ones being that younger individuals tend to move frequently, which can disrupt their registration status. Election Day often collides with class schedules, creating extra constraints. Furthermore, some states create an additional hurdle by not accepting student IDs for voter registration. Interestingly, one overlooked factor, according to Andrea Hailey, CEO of Vote.org, is that young voters might not fully comprehend the impact of their vote.
This younger demographic, also referred to as Gen Z, comprises around 41 million eligible voters. This figure includes 8 million fresh voters who recently turned 18 after the 2022 primaries, making them nearly a fifth of the electorate. This is a significant segment of the voting public, one that candidates like Kamala Harris seem to be largely banking on as they piece together their strategy.
In what seems to be an attempt at grasping at straws, Harris appears to be overly relying on this group of voters, regardless of their party affiliation, to bolster her campaign in critical swing states. Despite such efforts, it’s a well-known fact that the propensity of the younger voters to lean liberal does not guarantee their support for Harris, as many of them position themselves far to the left of mainstream Democratic politics.
Following Joe Biden’s announcement, Vote.org reported what they claimed to be the largest surge in voter registrations. In California, the platform recorded 11,583 new registrations, overwhelmingly dominated by the 18 to 34 age group. However, one might find it interesting to compare this with a previous surge that occurred after pop star Taylor Swift posted a link to Vote.org on her Instagram feed.
Andrea Hailey predicts this will provide a competitive advantage through engagement with first-time voters, independents, and those otherwise prone to abstention. Yet, this seems more like hopeful thinking than grounded reality, especially considering Harris’ reputation with this demographic. The challenge seems to lie in convincing these voters that she will pursue a progressive agenda on the issues they care about—something easier said than done.
The younger voters seem to have misplaced trust in Harris’ career history, noting her harsh stand against oil and gas companies. Ariela Lara, an 18-year-old Bay Area resident who works with the Sunrise Movement, a climate advocacy group, vocalizes this sentiment. She seems to be clamoring for Harris to make far-reaching environmental commitments, such as declaring a nationwide climate emergency, embracing a ‘Green New Deal’, and ending the approval of new oil and gas projects.
However, as vice president, Harris followed Biden’s footsteps and bragged about the environmental investments realized through the Inflation Reduction Act. Despite her tenure as California’s attorney general, where she sued automotive and gas companies for environmental breaches, many doubt whether she truly intends to support drastic environmental measures. Even her apparent popularity among the younger demographic comes with high expectations that she may well struggle to meet.
An important voter, Olivia Johnson, studying mass communication at Cal State LA, points to Harris’ views on gun regulations as crucial, citing potential learnings from her campaign on policy impact. Johnson also seems to be influenced by Harris’ stances on sensitive issues such as abortion and healthcare. She contends that these positions give her confidence in voting that seemed previously absent when Biden was the nominee.
Johnson appears to value healthcare accessibility since she associates with low-income communities that heavily rely on Medicare. However, her views seem to resonate with a minority group, and they are not reflective of broader public sentiment. There seems to be a lack of substantial policy differences between Harris and Biden, and that may well be the underlying reason for Biden’s earlier struggles with the younger demographic.
Dean Bonner, a research fellow at the Public Policy Institute of California, suggests that Harris could potentially sway the younger voter base by establishing clear policy differences with Joe Biden. However, his assertion assumes that this demographic is substantially dissatisfied with Biden’s stances, which borders on speculation rather than a definitive reality.
The ongoing conflict in Gaza presents a prominent instance where Harris could potentially win over young voters by adopting a slightly different tone than Biden’s. However, considering her record and the expectations surrounding her stance, it remains doubtful whether a mere change in tone would be sufficient to appease this highly informed and critical demographic.
Ultimately, Harris’ reliance on the young voter demographic seems to hint at a desperate campaign strategy that overlooks the complexity and diversity of the views held by these voters. While it’s true that this group tends to lean liberal, that doesn’t automatically position Harris as their preferred candidate.
Moreover, this unilateral focus on one demographic – in an attempt to brush under the carpet the larger issues – may seem myopic to many voters. As candidates, politicians should consider the needs and interests of the entire voter base, rather than trying to appease a single group.
Overall, Harris’ strategy seems to echo Biden’s previous shortcomings, signaling a lack of learning from past missteps. What might serve her better is a comprehensive, inclusive approach considering the entire electorate rather than banking solely on the youth for victory.
In conclusion, whether Harris’ strategy will pay off remains to be seen. However, the signs at present suggest that relying heavily on the youth vote, with no substantial policy differences to offer, may be a potentially misguided strategy.
Harris Pins Hopes on Fickle Youth Vote: A High-Risk Strategy appeared first on Real News Now.
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