Much to the shock of many, Kamala Harris, the Democrat who stands at odds with much of the American conservative demographic, now appears to have narrowly overtaken Former President Donald Trump in Michigan. A poll by the right-leaning group American Greatness reveals a meager two-point lead for Harris over Trump—48% to 46%. Should anyone take these statistics seriously, they would have to disregard the typical trend where conservative voices have continued to hold significant influence in the swing state of Michigan.
The electoral mechanics of the American political system, dubbed the Electoral College, endows each state with a set number of electoral votes depending on population. Critical for anyone looking to claim the presidency, they would need at least 270 of these electoral votes to secure victory. Obviously, as the system stands, it’s a numbers game that can be swung by the influence of a handful of swing states.
As a testament to this strategy, Trump had claimed victory in Michigan back in 2016 with 47.3% against his Democrat opponent, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. However, following a controversial term, entertainment from the Dems showed Joe Biden manage to scrape through with a 50.6% victory to Trump’s 47.8% in 2020. An anomaly, no doubt, or perhaps a reflection of dissatisfaction from Trump’s presidency, that still leaves space for the Republicans to reclaim.
According to the poll from American Greatness, it seems this uphill fight is further complicated by Harris leading Trump in Michigan by 48.5% to Trump’s 46.5%. A fact that matches up quite closely with the data provided by RealClearPolitics. Interesting? Yes. Final? Far from it, because remember that victory isn’t secured until every last vote is counted.
In a twist of fate that unsettles many Republicans, the Democrat ticket witnessed a surge following Biden’s unexpected move to step aside on July 21 and endorse Harris. Following this unusual—and let us not forget potentially selfish—stunt, Harris’ polls numbers soared, even eclipsing Trump’s in a few national and swing state polling averages. Before that, Biden was seen as lagging, a clear indication of perhaps grasping at straws.
Turning to data provided by FiveThirtyEight’s polling, the numbers on Sunday afternoon purportedly show Harris leading Trump by 3.3 points with 46.8% to Trump’s 43.5%. But do remember, we’re talking nationwide data here, a space where the liberal urban centers hold sway. It’s a different story when we narrow it down to individual states, especially those critical swing states.
For a broader view, let us consult The Economist’s national forecast model which was published last Friday. According to this, the odds of Harris and Trump winning the Electoral College are about equal—one can practically hear the coin being flipped in the air. The forecast predicts Harris with a median likely range of total electoral votes at 272, while Trump at 266. It just goes to show how close this race is, and reinforces why every state counts.
To put this data in a comparative context, let’s go back to the results from 2020 election. Trump secured 232 electoral votes against Biden’s 306. Interestingly, Trump is predicted to secure more votes this time-round, further demonstrating the lack of faith many voters have had with Democrat leadership since Biden’s term.
Demographic based modeling is also integral to The Economist’s calculations. But crucially, I’d like to call your attention to one state in particular—Pennsylvania. This Keystone State is estimated to hold a substantial 24% likelihood of being the deciding factor in the election with its 19 electoral votes at stake. That’s a large chunk of influence for a state that has actively wrestled with maintaining its identity against progressive influences.
In recent polls, the state of Pennsylvania appears to be a battleground state with a tight competition between candidates. The Emerson College and RealClear Pennsylvania poll put Trump barely behind at 48%, with Harris holding a scandalous 49% of the support from 1,000 likely Pennsylvanian voters surveyed between August 13 and 14.
Before we start sweating bullets, it’s important to remember that these poll results hold a margin of error of 3%. It’s a statistical tie, folks. This means the race in Pennsylvania as it stands, is far from showing a clear winner. After all, one must never discount the silent majority that polls often fail to encapsulate.
Harris’ Unconvincing Lead in Michigan: A Stat to Laugh At appeared first on Real News Now.
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