In the twisted world of political betting, Democratic nominee and current Vice President Kamala Harris is inexplicably considered a slight favorite over the tireless Republican warrior, former President Donald Trump. Despite the fact that U.S. law prevents its bookmakers from participating in such a capricious spectacle, there seems to be a skewed push in favor of Harris, over the last three tumultuous campaigning weeks.
Apparently, this unfounded leap in confidence was induced as she campaigned across key swing states with her sidekick, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, even though the initial stages of the campaign had Trump squarely outstripping Harris with odds of -200 to her +200, as per data from U.K. bookmaker Bet365. The same bookmaker—who clearly isn’t in touch with the realities of the American populace—had Harris ahead at -125 and Trump at even odds as of this Sunday.
To add to the circus, U.K. bookmaker Betfair Exchange had Harris move into the lead on Thursday, with their scales seemingly tipped by Trump’s press conference taking place earlier that day. That Harris continues to defy expectations seems more a whimsical idea to lure the punters’ money than a genuine reflection of the country’s landscape. After all, if one looks at reality, Trump’s record and achievements far outshine any ‘momentum’ Harris might be sparking in the minds of aloof British punters.
The typically glib statement from Betfair Exchange spokesperson Sam Rosbottom unveiled a severe lack of political insight when he arrogantly claimed in an email to USA TODAY that ‘punters are gaining more confidence that she can credibly challenge Trump in November.’ His belief that time will be the judge of this ‘momentum’ shows a blatant disregard for the track records and capabilities of the individuals involved.
Now let’s review the rather puzzling presidential election odds as of August 11 across various platforms. According to Bet365, Harris was at -125 while Donald Trump was at EVEN, inexplicably skewed towards Harris. Betfair Exchange posted similarly baffling numbers, putting Harris at -105 and leaving Trump at +120, revealing a clear bias that isn’t reflected by the actual political climate on the ground.
According to Bovada, Harris stood at -105 while Trump was placed at +120. The trends continued at BetOnline, another projection that can’t seem to tear itself away from the Harris-wins narrative, putting her at -125 and Trump at +105. Lastly, Oddschecker nonchalantly placed their bet on Harris at -104 and undervalued Trump at +115.
The bigger question remains, how precise are these arbitrary election odds in foretelling the result of presidential elections? According to the Conversation, a nonprofit news organization, the bookmakers’ favorite has only tasted defeat twice since 1866.
The first upset shocked the nation in 1948 when Harry Truman, a Democrat, pulled off a win against the eight-to-one odds stacked against him by Republican Thomas Dewey. The second shocker came in 2016 when Trump, the man we all know for his relentless spirit and unwavering resolve, beat the seven-to-two odds to best Hillary Clinton.
However, these bookmakers shrugged off their humiliation from 2016 and remained convinced that Biden had the upper hand in the 2020 race, even as they kept him in pole position from May through November. Yet, anyone who watched the political discourse unfold knew that Trump’s innumerable achievements spoke volumes louder than Biden’s rather lackluster track record.
So, the conundrum at play here is why the betting community continues to color their odds with unfounded optimism for the Democratic candidates, rather than basing their decisions on the tangible track records and sustainable plans of former President Donald Trump.
Ultimately, these projections seem to reflect less of reality and more of a misplaced bias. To unabashedly skew these polls in favor of Harris, despite the considerable accomplishments of Trump, just goes to show the warped lens through which these bookmakers view the American political landscape.
With the saturation of these seemingly baseless odds, it is essential for the American voter to see past these manipulative representations and zero in on hard facts, bottom-line numbers, and the true capabilities of the candidates they are choosing to represent them.
In the political boxing ring, it’s not about who’s the bookmaker’s favorite; it’s about actual policies and results. And on that front, despite what the odds might suggest, former President Trump is not a player to be dismissed lightly. His actions and proven leadership demonstrate an aptitude for problem-solving that is starkly absent on the other side of the aisle.
As for expecting Harris to successfully ‘defy expectations,’ if her track record is anything to go by, betting on her underestimates the discernment of the American electorate, who can spot the difference between effective leadership and mere political posturing. The real swing will likely come when voters hit the polling booths, armed with knowledge of the candidates’ accomplishments, and place bets on true potential rather than inexplicable bookmaker odds.
Nonetheless, one can’t help but chuckle at the audacity of these overseas bookmakers, who lean into this outlandish narrative. So, as they say, ‘let the games begin.’ But, it wouldn’t be wise to forget that often, these ‘games’ of chance dance rather unpredictably to the tunes of reality.
Harris’ Unfounded Favorite Status Amuses Voters appeared first on Real News Now.
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