Under the spotlight of his devoted followers, Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was cheered on at a rally, encapsulating the essence of Shia Muslims’ Tasua ritual on the ninth day, a commemoration of the martyrdom of Prophet Mohammed. A mere 30 days have passed after the strikes launched by Israel disarmed Iran’s air defense, propelling Khamenei to draw upon an archaic playbook, now sporting a fresh power core. An agonizing 12-day span in June compellingly revealed the shortcomings of Iran’s colossal military apparatus, forcing an attempt to regain national dignity.
Emerging confirmations from Iranian media on Saturday outlined an imminent revival of the defense council, led by President Masoud Pezeshkian. This constitutes the most substantive reorganisation of this high-ranking military body since the Iran-Iraq War in the 80s. It seems to be an urgent reaction to the catastrophic Israeli air strikes that momentarily rode roughshod over Iranian airspace in mid-June.
Echoing through local Iranian media outlets was an assertive proclamation, ‘The Defense Council is back,’ embedded within the larger framework of ‘structural reforms’ for Iran’s Supreme National Security Council (SNSC). The unembellished terminology of the constitution gives way to the real-time scramble of Iran’s leadership and top-tier military figures, as they strive to regain grip over the seriously damaged Islamic Republic defenses, on a psychological and military front.
The Iranian constitution, under Article 176, provides the SNSC with the authority to make necessary arrangements to establish sub-councils. While this is not a novel exercise, the public and symbolic gravity of the move is unparalleled. Accompanying the formation of this new defense council is a roster of individuals, each at the center stage of the regime – the IRGC and army leaders, parliamentary speaker, judiciary’s chief, intelligence minister, and delegates appointed by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, all reporting under a unified command.
In line with expectations, Ali Larijani, a trusted stalwart of the regime, is likely to assume the SNSC secretary role from R.-Adm. Ali Akbar Ahmadian. This key position traditionally serves as the hub of Iran’s foreign and martial strategy, implying Larijani’s future role in steering Iran’s defense coordination efforts. Mansour Haghighatpour, an ex-lawmaker and ally of Larijani, indicates that the revival of the defense council will push the Armed Forces General Staff into a supportive role rather than dominating the command.
Haghighatpour stressed on the necessity of having a committed deputy in case of severe conflicts to avoid being unprepared during crucial moments. Critiques from overseas view this as an act of desperation, with Iran going on the defensive politically and militarily after their defenses were caught off guard.
Iran’s top military official has made several appearances recently, cautioning against potential Israeli or American actions. His demand extends to the civilian sector to follow a comparable protocol of military readiness. Echoing a presentiment of impending danger, he stressed that the nation must be on guard against any forthcoming aggression, promising that Iran’s military retaliation will be swift and formidable.
Simultaneously, a strategy for nationwide civil defense preparation and shelter security has gained approval within Iran. It defines the responsibilities of governing bodies regarding the construction and management of emergency housing and shelters. The nation’s top military personnel emphasized that readiness programs are being implemented across the armed forces, targeting short, medium, and long-term readiness.
Beneath the rallying cries and rockets, Tehran’s new architectural arrangement possibly indicates a profound shift in civil-military dynamics. The resuscitation of the defense council with the government’s chief at its apex, under Khamenei’s surveillance, surrounded by loyal IRGC members, could suggest a move towards a more centralized wartime command, blurring the lines between civil and military realms.
Tensions between Iran and Israel are predicted to reignite in the near future, as indicated by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Despite setbacks in June, Araghchi, in a recent interview, asserted that Iran retains the capability to retaliate against Israel, negating the existence of a formal ceasefire between Tehran and Jerusalem.
Araghchi stated, ‘The offensive has ceased and the right to defense has ceased in response. This is the end of it. There’s no formal ceasefire, nothing more. When there is no hostility, of course, there is no cause for defense.’ After stating that there were no conditions for the attack cessation, Araghchi pointed out that the situation remains fluid and all possibilities are open, not just for Iran but also for other countries.
For the last time, Iran was forced to activate the defense council amid the bloodstained years of the Iran-Iraq War, an era that saw the rise of the IRGC, a culture of martyrdom, and the founding of the Islamic Republic’s mental fortress. Iran’s recent battle with Israel has rekindled these sentiments, echoing the reinstatement of the defense council.
The revival of the defense council sends a strong message to Israel and the US – Iran is girding for more warfare, intensified coordination, and increased centralized control. Whether these changes will lead to newfound resilience or create more fractures largely hangs on Iran’s learnings from the recent blow in June, and whether this is a comprehensive restructuring or merely a reconstitution of the ruins.
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