On July 3rd, Iran’s President, Masoud Pezeshkian, decided to halt Iran’s affiliation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). This move was in response to the bombing of three of Iran’s significant nuclear sites by the United States, amidst an ongoing standoff between Israel and Iran in the skies.
A dialogue between Iran and the IAEA has been forecasted to be quite ‘technical’ and ‘complex’. This prediction was made public through an announcement by the Foreign Ministry of Iran as they await the IAEA’s visit, which is expected to be their first since the political estrangement between them last month.
An aerial conflict lasting twelve days, conducted by Israel and the United States in June, resulted in severe damage to the main nuclear infrastructure of Iran. Consequently, tensions have escalated between the parties involved. In fact, this situation has caused a bitter taste in the relationship between Iran and the IAEA.
The Board of the IAEA expressed its concerns on June 12th, proclaiming that Iran might have crossed its non-proliferation boundaries. Curiously, this announcement occurred one day prior to the airstrikes conducted by Israel over Iran, igniting the aforementioned conflict.
Despite the imminent diplomatic visit by the deputy leader of the IAEA, detailed plans about their access to the nuclear sites in Iran have not been disclosed to the public. It remains uncertain whether the nuclear watchdog will gain entry to inspect these sites.
Esmail Baghaei, the spokesperson of the Iranian Foreign Ministry, suggested a possible interstate communication with the Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi. He referred to the conversation as ‘technical’ and ‘intricate’, and said it was premature to assume how the discussion would unfold.
Baghaei did not hold back when commenting on the IAEA: He expressed his objections to the IAEA’s neutral position during Israel’s conflict with Iran in June. Baghaei accused the Agency of inaction and failing to condemn the bombings targeting a country under its surveillance.
Baghaei highlighted how critical infrastructure in the country, under constant IAEA monitoring, was defenseless against bombings and criticized the Agency’s lack of a well-thought-out response, particularly its silence and inability to deliver the necessary condemnation towards the aggressive act.
In a previous statement, Aragchi posited that the collaboration with the IAEA would necessitate approval from Iran’s apex security entity – the Supreme National Security Council. He further stated that the partnership would aim to construct a new framework guiding the two parties’ cooperation.
There is a likelihood that this recent diplomatic maneuvering may affect the abilities of inspectors to track Iran’s controversial nuclear program that has been enriching uranium close to the level suitable for weaponry.
President Pezeshkian’s decree on July 3rd to halt cooperation with the IAEA was not an isolated incident. This decision occurred in the wake of hostility portrayed by the US, where three of Iran’s nuclear sites were bombed while Israel was also launching air strikes. These conflicts resulted in the loss of approximately 1,100 lives, including a significant proportion of military officials.
Israel’s counter-attack dealt a blow to Iran, resulting in a loss of 28 lives. The use of the tactic of restrictive IAEA inspections by Iran has been noted historically. The purpose of such a tactic is to use it as a bargaining chip in negotiations with Western countries.
Though the timeline for the resumption of negotiations between Tehran and Washington over Iran’s nuclear program remains uncertain, there is an expectation of future discourse.
The US intelligence agencies along with the IAEA previously deduced that Iran had an active nuclear weapons program up until 2003. However, there has been ongoing concern due to Iran’s continued uranium enrichment up to an alarming level of 60%, placing them only a small technical step away from the weapons-grade level of 90%.
The latter argument casts a shadow of uncertainty over Iran’s nuclear intentions despite their claim of peaceful purposes. It impels the global community to anticipate and prepare for the possible consequences of Iran’s decision to suspend cooperation with the IAEA.
At the heart of these uncertain circumstances, the recent spate of events has raised concerns in global politics about nuclear proliferation and the role of redefined diplomacy in averting worldwide conflict.
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