William Henry Harrison still stands as a unique figure in U.S. politics as the ninth holder of the highest office, and also the final president whose birth pre-dated American independence, making him technically a British subject at birth. A member of the now-defunct Whig Party, his victory made him the first of his political faction to ascend to the United States presidency. His inaugural speech is infamous for its length, persisting for a record-breaking duration of nearly two hours. Tragically, his tenure as president was remarkably ephemeral, concluding after just 32 days due to his untimely death in office.
Harrison bears the distinction of being the last political figure who failed in his initial presidential bid but triumphed in the subsequent round. Prior to him, fellow countrymen and presidents, Thomas Jefferson and Andrew Jackson were the ones to have achieved this feat. Richard Nixon stands out as an exception as his subsequent win wasn’t immediately after his loss but many years later. Only two individuals, Grover Cleveland, and Donald Trump, have gone through the veritable roller coaster of winning, followed by losing, and finally capturing victory again. All other aspirants who attempted a rebound after a first-time loss repeated their failure.
Democrat Adlai Stevenson and Republican Thomas Dewey, both tasted defeat not just once but in two consecutive attempts. To go a step further, Henry Clay and William Jennings Bryan – presidential hopefuls, suffered a trifecta of losses hinting, perhaps, at an inherent hesitation voters possess towards electing a previously triumphant candidate. In the world of politics, a history of loss can seemingly tint a candidate’s image collectively in the eyes of the public, despite their individual merits or potential.
Kamala Harris, within this historical context, faces a challenging predicament. Her recent decision to forgo the Californian governor’s race has set the rumour mill spinning, with speculations pointing towards another shot at the Oval Office. However, given past patterns and public perception, her chances look less than favourable, to say the least.
The Democratic Party, to which Harris belongs, is currently in an unfavourable spot, with a significant drop in public approval ratings. Sagging by 30 points, the party has hit a dismal low compared to the Republican Party’s deficit of 11. Such a steep drop marks the worst it has witnessed in more than three decades. The level of disillusionment among Democrats is alarming; supporters have become critical of their party’s performance against Trump and its lackluster opposition currently.
Although Harris isn’t solely to blame for the party’s shortcomings, she has come to symbolize the rising discontent within Democratic ranks. It’s important to note that this more or less universal dissatisfaction evolving within the party isn’t characterized by a single, unified sentiment but rather is disparate in its nature.
Progressive Democrats are advocating for more aggressive stances, frustrated at what they perceive as a lack of necessary force in challenging opposition. The centrists, on the other hand, bemoan the party’s leftward shift, critiquing the too eager embrace of identity politics and culture wars. Both groups, however, despite their ideological differences, are unified in their desperate desire for Democratic electoral victories.
Oddly, the only reason Harris was predicted as a plausible nominee for 2024 was on the basis of Diversity. Biden made clear his intent to select a female vice-presidential candidate and subsequently disclosed his preference for an African American running mate. However, Harris’ struggle doesn’t stem from her racial or gender identity but from her apparent failure to adequately resonate with voters and to extend the Democratic Party’s reach.
The Democratic strategy to regain control hinges upon a candidate capable of attracting former Trump supporters. Hers didn’t prove she was that candidate. Harris wasn’t let down by low Democratic turnout but was unsuccessful due to her lack of appeal to the evolving voter base. With her speeches reminiscent of a principal at a small liberal arts college, she did little to inspire the broad range of voters needed for victory.
One glaring problem that Harris had was that she seemed too fabricated, seemingly molded to fit public narratives by focus groups, in a time when authenticity was a valuable trait that the American electorate was searching for. To further detriment her appeal, she chose not yield to Joe Biden’s prompting for her to maintain a close political alignment with him. This misguided decision further eroded her political standing.
Strikingly indicative of Harris’ disconnect with the political realities was her decision to appear on ‘The Late Show’ for her first interview after leaving office. Stephen Colbert’s audience, while fervent, isn’t representative of the broader electorate that Democrats need to sway in their favor.
Her interview, while popular with Colbert’s primarily ideologically-driven audience, does not reach the much larger, more diverse voter base that the Democratic Party needs to engage and win over. Her appeal largely seems limited to these insular groups, doing little to expand her reach.
Hence, considering all the aforementioned factors, if the Democrats opt to nominate Harris again, it’s highly conceivable that she may meet a defeat. The harsh reality is such that she is more likely to become a trivia question’s answer than the United States’ 48th president.
The historical pattern, combined with the intensely divided factions within the Democratic party and the lack of widespread appeal that Harris has shown, all paint a bleak picture for her potential 2024 presidential run. However, in the unpredictable landscape of politics, only time can unravel future outcomes.
Hence, one thing seems to be clear amidst all this – it is high time for the Democrats to regroup, reassess and strategize anew if they wish to regain their lost glory in the American political arena. Above all, what they need is a candidate capable of unifying the party, appealing to the wider electorate, and instigating a robust campaign to successfully flip Trump loyalists.
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