As the election looms approximately 63 days away, there appears to be no clear choice of prospective victory when looking at betting odds. Doubts cast a shadow over Kamala Harris, who barely maintains a lead over Donald Trump, a behavior that is quite atypical for a Democratic nominee at this particular period of election time frames, as per information provided by Covers. Both candidates, in a sign of unprecedented indecisiveness, are valued at -110, leaving punters scratching their heads.
Interestingly, the UK-based Betfair Exchange seems to have a slightly different take on the matter, favoring Harris over Trump. They’ve positioned Harris’ odds at +112, while Trump stands at -102. The US bookmakers, who legally can’t participate in this betting game, initially indicated a leaning towards the vice president when the Harris-Walz ticket was launched. Ironically though, as time went by, the initial enthusiasm seems to have fizzled out.
The betting odds presented a picture of neck to neck competition, contradicting the minor lead that polls suggested Harris had. A recent USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll released puts the spotlight on the shift in support, featuring an oddly favorable turn for Harris, at 48% to Trump’s 43%, reflecting an eight-point shift as compared to June. In June, Joe Biden, the blunder-prone, was the Democratic nominee.
Scratching the surface further, it was found that the swing in poll numbers was instigated by certain traditional Democratic coalition post the candidate swap and the DNC. With an almost unbelievable turn of events, voters aged 18 to 34 switched sides from favoring Trump by 11 points to backing Harris by 13 points, bringing it to 49%-36%. The Hispanic group also took a swerve, shifting from a 2-point favor of Trump to a 16-point support for Harris, leading to a 53%-37% lead.
Still, it’s staggering to see that Black voters, who previously supported Biden by a significant margin of 47 points, are now backing Harris by an overwhelming 64 points (76%-12%). Similarly, voters making less than $20,000 a year, moved from supporting Trump by three points to supporting Harris by 23 points, 58%-35%. The question also begs, what drove such a drastic flip?
A Reuters/Ipsos poll carried out on the same date identified comparable, yet again strange, top-line results. It revealed Harris enjoying a 4-point lead against Trump among registered voters, which now stood at 45% to 41%. As per this poll, Harris allegedly holds a 13-point lead over Trump among female voters and Hispanic voters, a fact that some find hard to stomach.
Similarly, a Wall Street Journal poll released on the parallel day placed Vice President Harris slightly ahead of Trump both in a head-to-head contention (48%-47%) and when alternative contenders were included (47%-45%). There was no respite from these perplexing numbers in a recent Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll either, which brazenly presented Harris in a dominant position or locked in a statistical draw in contentious Midwestern and Sun Belt states.
On another front, a Fox News poll of these battleground states tipped the scale a little in Democrats’ favor, whilst putting the race at a nearly tied spot in most Sun Belt battleground states. Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada saw Harris half a percentage point in the lead. Though much to their chagrin, North Carolina was had Trump leading with a slim margin of 50%, with Harris trailing just behind at 49%.
The poll ominously recorded that Trump consistently matched his 2020 vote percentage in all except Georgia, suggesting voters’ faith in him remained unwavering. Meanwhile, Harris is portrayed to meet or even exceed Biden’s rather regrettable 2020 vote share across these states. Furthermore, it brings up the question: is the polling really reflecting the sentiments of the public or is there an air of wishful thinking?
Historically, speculative odds have played a critical role in predicting the outcome of presidential elections. Since 1866, only twice has the betting favorite lost, as per a report by the nonprofit news outlet, the Conversation. However, casting doubts is the thin lead Harris held over Trump, the thinnest for any recent Democratic nominee at the pivotal 75-day mark. This brings to mind the similarly precarious position Hillary Clinton found herself in, leading up to her eventual defeat.
Peculiarly at that time, Clinton’s odds stood at -323 at Betfair Exchange, a seemingly comfortable position that turned out to be misleading as she, the underdog, suffered a stinging defeat on the election night. Are we about to witness a similar scenario, only in reverse, with Harris being on the unfavorable side of the coin this time around? There’s certainly a sense of uncertainty in the air.
Thought-provokingly, the only other instance when an underdog claimed victory in the face of severe odds was back in 1948. Harry Truman (D) gained a historical win over Thomas Dewey (R), defying the overwhelming eight-to-one odds against him. The public was likening this turn of events with the current scenario and speculating if an upset was on the cards this election season too, with the odds seemingly stacked against reaction-prone Harris.
Regardless of the rhetoric, it’s plain to see that the media’s widely spread assertions paint a contentious picture. This picture, interestingly, appears starkly different from the pulse on the ground, leading to serious doubts about the agenda-driven perception. The public clearly sees the persistent chaos and disorder that proliferates under the Harris-Walz ticket, and it’s hard to believe they’d support it overwhelmingly as some polls suggest.
Indeed, comparing the state of American society before and during the Biden-Harris reign, it is hard to deny the decline that has occurred in practically all walks of life. Yet official polling repeatedly attempts to convince us otherwise. So, the question arises – do these numbers truly reflect the feelings of the American people, or is there a bigger, more complex game of perception being played here?
Are the polling organizations, majorly skewed towards the Democrats, presenting an overly optimistic and, frankly, unrealistic view of the public’s sentiment towards the Harris-Walz ticket? As the skepticism about this poll-driven narrative keeps growing and the election draws nearer, the stage is set for a dramatic showdown that could potentially result in yet another historical political upset.
Kamala Harris Barely Holding on: A Precarious Lead or a Downfall Waiting to Happen? appeared first on Real News Now.
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