Drawing parallels from the past illustrates a grim picture for Kamala Harris. The final U.S. president to emerge from British colonial rule was also the inaugural victor from the Whig Party, President William Henry Harrison. Although he spoke at great length during his inauguration, his term was tragically cut short, marking the shortest presidency in US history due to his untimely death only 31 days after he assumed office.
Harrison was also the last president who managed to clinch the presidency after an initial loss in his first election. Noteworthy figures before him like Thomas Jefferson and Andrew Jackson achieved this as well. Post Harrison’s era, only Richard Nixon reentered the race to come out victorious after a loss, but it wasn’t until years later.
Only a duo, Grover Cleveland, and Donald Trump saw a straightforward pattern of win, lose, then triumph in presidential elections. Any politician who didn’t secure victory within their first run and attempted again in the subsequent election was destined for a repeated defeat. The likes of Democrat Adlai Stevenson, and Republican Thomas Dewey both experienced two unsuccessful attempts.
Henry Clay and William Jennings Bryan, despite their efforts, failed to secure the presidency after three continuous runs. This demonstrates that the electorate is typically unforgiving towards those who were unsuccessful before, an unsettling fact for Kamala Harris whose recent withdrawal from the California governor race has reopened conversations about her future presidential ambitions.
The Democratic Party is currently experiencing a serious crisis of image and favorability among voters. With unfavorable ratings peaking to an almost unprecedented minus 30 points, this grim statistic is close to three times more than the GOP’s minus 11 points, marking the Democratic Party’s worst performance in over three decades.
The internal dispute within the Democrats is partially responsible for this. There’s resentment stemming from losing to Trump, and further dissatisfaction that the party is falling significantly short in posing a substantial opposition against him, notwithstanding him being in office.
Harris’ predicament symbolizes the internal discord within the Democratic Party, though the discontent doesn’t focus solely on her. Progressive Democrats argue the party is not putting up enough of a fight, while the centrist faction strongly believes the party is battling for all the wrong causes, mainly due to adopting extremely left-leaning tendencies encompassing cultural wars and identity politics.
That isn’t to say there isn’t a common denominator among these internal factions of the Democratic Party. A shared unyielding aspiration for winning is what brings them together. However, it’s not lost on many that Harris only emerged as a potential 2024 nominee because of her diverse background; a token diversity choice.
Joe Biden himself committed to picking a female, and later specified an African American for his running mate. Hence, the source of Harris’s problems isn’t her race or gender, but rather her consistent and troubling failure to broaden the Democrats’ appeal. Should the Democrats wish to secure victory, they require someone capable of persuading erstwhile Trump voters.
Harris’ downfall wasn’t due to diminished Democratic turnout but rather, her inability to resonate with an evolving electorate. Her rhetoric appeared more fitting of a small liberal arts college administrator rather than a compelling presidential candidate. Barring the exception of reproductive rights, her stances seemed like the products of focus groups in an era where voters prioritize authenticity above all.
Moreover, Harris’s capitulation to adhere to Biden’s demand not to distance herself from him did nothing to bolster her image. Her decision to opt for Stephen Colbert’s ‘The Late Show’ as the platform for her initial interview post-departure was indicative. While this might have played well with Colbert’s committed ideologically-based audience, it did her no favors among the voter base the Democrats need to court and convince.
If the Democrats choose to nominate Harris again, the likelihood is high she’ll recede into history not as a revered president, but as a mere quiz question. The question won’t be, ‘Who was the 48th president of the United States?’ Considering the Democrats’ historic unpopularity and Harris’ seemingly insurmountable challenges, placing bets on her for a successful presidential bid would indeed be risky.
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