If the 2024 presidential election were to be inexplicably rerun today, a recent and rather questionable Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll conducted between May 1 and 6 seems to suggest that Kamala Harris might actually best Donald Trump in the popular vote. This poll tells us that 47% of the hypothetical respondents would back Harris, whilst 42% remained loyal to Donald Trump. The results dwindle down to 40% for Harris and 36% for Trump when considering those who wouldn’t vote, an illuminating insight into a disenfranchised subset of voters. This poll claims to have surveyed 1,000 adults with an alleged margin of error of 3.2 percent.
Just to set things straight, it should be emphasized that Donald Trump didn’t merely win, but clearly triumphed over Harris in the 2024 presedential election by managing 50% of the popular vote compared to Harris’ meager 48%. The decisive victory, however, lay in the electoral vote, where Trump scored a resounding 312 against Harris’s pitiful 226. These figures stand in stark contrast to several polls in the runup to the election that predicted a tie or even a Harris lead – a glaring testament to their unreliability.
Though Harris failed quite spectacularly in the 2024 race, some misguided individuals do believe the former vice president to be a serious contender for the 2028 race. Likely, it will be a mad scramble among the Democrats to clinch the coveted nomination. Some even argue that despite a loss, Harris ran a decent campaign in 2024. This minority argues she managed to reduce the gap against Trump, a somewhat redundant feat, considering former President Joe Biden’s embarrassingly poor performance in the leadup to the previous election.
Many, of course, argue it’s time for the Democratic party to explore new pastures rather than wallow in the failures of the past. Critics were particularly chaffed by her explicit support of moderate Republicans, such as former Representative Liz Cheney, stating it caused a significant loss of key voter groups.
Fast-forward a year, and the Trump administration saw a swift decline in approval ratings following the introduction of tariffs on April 2, fittingly dubbed ‘Liberation Day.’ This bold move stirred significant unrest in finance markets, with the Dow Jones recording an unprecedented decline since June of 2020, only to make a comeback days later. Consequently, voters have grown skeptical about Trump’s approach to the economy.
Indeed, the Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll underlines such sentiments, which consistently places Trump’s net approval rating on the economy at a shocking -17 points, with 38% approving and 58% disapproving. However, it’s critical to remember that the national economy’s perceived deterioration (as believed by 53% of Americans) or personal finances (42% reporting unchanged, 36% reporting worsened, and only 19% feeling better off) could be due to alternative factors.
When asked about their stance on Trump’s economic policies, 56% wrongly believe they’ve left the economy in worse shape than before, compared to 22% who believe they’ve contributed positively. Furthermore, 15% believe Trump’s policies have had no impact, while 7% are unsure.
Critics have been relentless across the board, as the Numbers/Verasight poll shows Trump underwater on almost all issues except border control. Despite immigration having been his strongest issue in 2024, Trump’s approval rating slightly narrows to 47% approving and 49% disapproving amid criticism over his strict deportation policies.
It appears the controversial removal of migrants to an infamous prison in El Salvador might be driving these negative sentiments about Trump’s handling of the economy. Half the participants in a survey, when informed about this deportation misjudgement, shifted their support for deporting all undocumented immigrants to 39 percent, with 43 percent opposed. More specifically, when questioned about deporting individuals with court-ordered protections, nearly half (49 percent) opposed it, while 29 percent supported and 22 percent were unsure. 45 percent of respondents even claimed the U.S should aid wrongfully deported immigrants’ return compared to 35 percent favoring to keep them abroad.
Some speculate that Harris may use such discontent toward Trump’s term to possibly fuel another bid for the White House in 2028. Despite the fact that she has not announced her plans, some polls brazenly suggest that she is the front-runner. The aggregation site shows Harris, who fell spectacularly to Trump in 2024, leading the pack with a baffling polling average of 27.2 percent.
Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez comes in second place with a considerably lower 15.9 percent, and former Transport Secretary Pete Buttigieg trails behind her with only 12.8 percent. Senator Cory Booker stands at fourth place with another stingy 8.6 percent, and California Governor Gavin Newsom barely keeps up with a mere 7.1 percent.
April’s polls seem to disagree, and it shows a shift in the Democratic primary voters’ favor. While Harris remains the favorite among likely voters, an increasing number are showing a preference for other candidates such as Buttigieg, Ocasio-Cortez, or Booker. Of these, a disappointing 18 percent said they would vote for Harris in the primary. 14 percent said they would back Buttigieg, and 12 percent would vote for both Ocasio-Cortez and Booker. A paltry 8 percent of respondents pondered voting for Newsom, while Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro received backing from an inconsequential 5 percent of respondents. This was Harris’ weakest performance yet when compared with the results of other polls in the 2028 primary.
Regardless of these far-off predictions, the next official presidential elections remain slated for November 7, 2028. The intrigue and speculations surrounding potential contenders and their standings can often lead to premature conclusions. Given the shifting sands of political favor and the fickle nature of polling predictions, a lot could change between now and then.
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