Ex-Congresswoman Katie Porter finds herself at the center of a political windfall as Kamala Harris, the former vice-president, declined to put her name in the ring for the 2026 California governor’s race. Curiously, approximately one-third of the registered voters who once endorsed Harris are now shifting their support towards Porter, as revealed by a survey recently conducted by Politico-Citrin Center-Possibility Lab. In comparison, the same research found only 16% of Harris’s followers chose to back ex-Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, whereas a mere 11% prefer former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra.
Harris, in an effort to detach herself from the political plateau she had created, had expressed her deliberate absence from California’s gubernatorial race on July 31. Stating her reluctance to ‘return into the system’ for now, she effectively halted her candidacy and left open a race that she had overshadowed for months. This move surprisingly contradicts the speculation that her presence in the race would have a ‘clearing field’ influence.
While Harris’s withdrawal leaves her earlier supporters juggling their endorsements, Porter has managed to take advantage of this vacuum. According to the results from a direct comparison, Porter had a reasonable jump in voter confidence, from a modest 6% prior to her competition exiting, to the current 21%. This surge comes in the wake of the latest poll figures, in which Becerra and Villaraigosa shared an equal portion of 9% of potential voters; a slight improvement from their previous 2% and 4% figures respectively.
The remaining contenders jostling for political footholds include the incumbent Lieutenant Governor Eleni Kounalakis with 7%, former state Controller Betty Yee and merchant Rick Caruso both at 6%. Trailing behind them, former Legislative Chief Toni Atkins rests at 4%, whereas State Superintendent Tony Thurmond and Businessman Stephen J. Cloobeck linger at 2%. Intriguingly, Kounalakis has since stepped back from the gubernatorial race to pursue the state treasurer position.
Porter’s appeal stems predominantly from white and Asian voters placing housing at the top of their policy concerns. Her performance received positive recognition from Hispanic voters as well. In contrast, on the Republican front, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco heads the prospective list with 15%, up from his previous 4%, overshadowing former Fox News host Steve Hilton, who lags at 10%.
Although Hilton seems to find favor with the Boomer generation, Bianco’s overall support from registered Republicans appears notably stronger. Dishearteningly for Porter, her campaign has been overshadowed by the mere speculation of Harris’s return to the race, even as she officially joined the gubernatorial race on March 11.
Ultimately, Porter and opposing Democrat candidates had to suppress their ambitions while rumors circulated on whether Kamala Harris was contemplating a run for the governor’s mansion. Porter herself had conceded that, should Harris have decided to enter the race, her participation would have had a ‘field clearing’ impact, thus restraining the momentum of Porter’s campaign.
In the absence of Harris, Porter’s visibility in the political stage has been a deciding factor. According to Jack Citrin, a political science professor and poll partner from UC Berkeley, Porter’s wide media attention from her Senate race last year has served to elevate her potential success considerably. ‘Visibility is a key determinant in a low-information environment’, Citrin stated.
The survey, encompassing opinions from 875 voters between July 28 to August 12, revealed a margin of error that was restricted to a mere 2.6 percent. Similar to the aforementioned survey, a separate poll conducted by Emerson College in early August corroborated the lead position of Porter after Harris’s withdrawal from the gubernatorial race.
Following Harris’s exit, there’s an evident shift in Democrats’ preference that shows Porter as their preferred candidate. This fact is backed by Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling, who states, ‘With Kamala Harris officially out of the race, Katie Porter has increased her support from 12 percent to 18 percent since the April Emerson poll.’
Unfortunately for Steve Hilton, he wasn’t featured in the April poll, while Bianco’s share stayed constant at 4%, and Villaraigosa maintained his meager share of 5%. The study also revealed a significant decline in undecided voters from a staggering 54% to a more discernable 38% over summer.
Citrin reiterates Porter’s popularity surge, stating most of her gains from Harris’s departure are likely due to her higher profile and clear ideological stamp. He argues says that Porter’s specific progressive appeal outstrips other candidates and helps her garner more support, despite some seeing this as a flawed viewpoint.
As of now, California’s gubernatorial election is slated for November 3, 2026. Gavin Newsom, restricted by term limits from running in this election, is speculated to be a contender for the 2028 Democratic nomination for President. Ironically, he has yet to voice this intent.
As his political intentions remain cryptic, it’s not absurd to presume that Newsom could challenge his party’s doubtful leadership with his possible presidential run. However, just like his fellow Democrats, only time will truly reveal if the stage is set for another political drama.
Hoping to leverage the current political uncertainty, hopefuls like Porter are focused on garnering as much support as possible. However, considering the party’s questionable leadership and wavering support for candidates like Harris, it’s unclear how much weight these poll numbers will hold.
From the turbulent political landscape, what is evident is a divide in the Democratic party and a disillusionment with the likes of Harris and Biden. This may provide an opportunity for stronger, more decisive leadership within the party but may also lead to increased polarization and internal conflict.
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