The Lebanese government on Friday undertook an army-devised strategy to mitigate the influence of Iran-backed Hezbollah, maintaining an air of secrecy around the plan’s specifics. The military is said to begin the application of said strategy according to its capacities which are inherently limited. The details of the meeting were shared via a written statement by the Information Minister, who conveyed that the Council of Ministers appreciated the stepwise approach proposed by army officials for the enforcement of lawful authorities retaining armament control.
Confidentiality was stressed upon the recitals of this plan, and it was requested of the Army Command to maintain a monthly status report to keep track of the progress. However, the introduction of the Army’s plan was met with resistance from the five Shiite ministers, four representing Hezbollah and the Amal Movement, who vacated the session as Army Cmdr. Gen. began to present the plan.
Hezbollah’s Labor Minister articulated their contention to discussing disarmament ‘at this timing,’ making it clear that they would rather start with ‘a defense strategy to protect Lebanon.’ In light of these events, last month saw the Cabinet support a US-backed initiative to detach Hezbollah from its armaments and commissioned the Army to strategize the imposition of a state monopoly on arms by the year’s end.
Although the army’s strategy reportedly does not clarify a specific timeline for effectuation – intentionally designed to ameliorate Hezbollah’s anticipated animosity, which has been reluctant for disarmament. It has contested the deadline set by the government, citing reasons such as Israel’s continuous occupation of Lebanese territory, daily airstrikes, and imprisonment of Lebanese citizens.
The execution of the plan is set to commence with limited resources in terms of logistics, funding, and manpower. A few stumbling blocks have been identified for the proper execution of the plan, with Israel’s incessant breaches of the cessation of hostilities agreement, brokered by the U.S. and France, topping the list.
Even though Hezbollah has been open to negotiations regarding their arsenal in the context of national defense, it has been resistant to setting a timetable for disarmament, a major condition set by the U.S. for releasing critical international and Gulf Arab funding for Lebanese reconstruction and economic revival.
Despite Lebanon’s significant unilateral steps of approving a U.S.-endorsed disarmament proposal and empowering its army to extend state power across all Lebanese territories, Israel, on the other hand, hasn’t hinted any signs of commitment to the proposed solution or made any reciprocal acts.
Furthermore, Israel has been reminded of its responsibilities under U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701 and the cease-fire agreement. It was underscored that Israel’s constant violations pose grave threats to regional security and stability.
Our primary interests lie in ensuring the presence of army jurisdiction throughout the country, driving reconstruction forward, putting an end to Israeli aggression, and addressing the detainee issue. We shall proceed… and keep making headway, steering clear of internal discord, as such divisiveness will not serve our interests.
Lebanon faces intense global and regional pressure to disarm Hezbollah, coupled with the fear of domestic dissension and security collapse due to the opponent group’s defiance to surrender its weapons. The decision to instate a timetable for Hezbollah’s disarmament is primarily propelled by the looming threat of another destructive conflict with Israel and the potential loss of crucial resources to reconstruct the ravaged regions.
Prominent U.S. officials cautioned Lebanese leaders about their lackadaisical approach to the Hezbollah issue, underlining the potential risk of losing financial backing from the U.S. and Gulf Arab countries, or worse, a revival of military action.
The United States, Israel, and Gulf Arab states have been pressuring the Lebanese government to make resolute decisions, undeterred by Hezbollah’s intimidation and threats of inciting unrest. In fact, one U.S. official hinted that Lebanon’s ‘inaction or half-measure’ responses could prompt Congress to cease the annual funding of approximately $150 million to the Lebanese Armed Forces.
Other U.S. officials alluded to a grimmer risk: Israel deciding it has to assert control and resorting to a recalibrated military campaign that may bring about substantial damage and loss of life. The previous war resulted in more than 21,500 casualties, displaced over 1.2 million people and left border regions in Southern Lebanon in tatters.
Lebanon’s requirement for reconstruction and economic recovery is estimated to be in the confines of $11 billion, as per the World Bank. However, Lebanese officials argue that the amount required is even higher, exceeding $14 billion.
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