Live updates from the third round of the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow, 2025, are being provided by The Athletic. Quail Hollow Club is hosting this prestigious golf tournament for its second stint, but comparisons with the first event should be taken lightly. In 2017, Quail Hollow was the usual venue for the last major tournament of the golf season. The tournament, held in August, moved to a springtime slot in the calendar two years later.
The seasonal shift suggests the host course may prove more challenging this year. That’s because seasonal condition changes could influence the tournament to a point where the PGA appears to have U.S Open like difficulty. Recent rainfall has made the course longer and softer, but at least for now, an underground sub-air system should help contribute some firmness to the golf course.
Justin Thomas clinched a victory in the 2017 tournament, clocking in with a score of 8-under 276 at Quail Hollow. It seems likely that this year’s champion will also come from the top half of the leaderboard. Our goal is to pinpoint the most suitable balance between the player’s worth, in-form performance, and past experience with the course. The betting odds referenced are those that were available on May 12, 2025.
In terms of odds to win, Scottie Scheffler (+500) and Rory McIlroy (+500) seem neck and neck. Some sportsbooks even represent them as joint favorites. The saying ‘horses for courses’ seems to fit Rory perfectly, when considering his previous performance at this venue.
If you are looking for a winning bet outside of the top contenders, you need to consider the right type of player. Keep in mind that in this context, the runner-up is merely the highest finisher who didn’t win. We’re on the hunt for players with significant upside, potentially outperforming those who offer a reliable average performance.
At this stage, we are primarily fishing for numbers and looking for odds that appear to be underestimated. We cannot have a discussion about the PGA Championship, without mentioning Jordan Spieth. This tournament marks Spieth’s ninth consecutive participation in the PGA Championship, where he may potentially join McIlroy in accomplishing the career grand slam.
While it’s unlikely Spieth will perform poorly this week, it’s equally uncertain as to whether he will offer up a standout performance. Investing in a player’s consistent performance could be a more reasonable approach rather than banking on their highest potential.
Counting this year’s victories, Spieth’s most enticing aspect could be his consistent performance (the ‘floor’), evidenced by his 10 top-30 finishes in the past 12 starts. The Championship’s recent history shows that during the last 13 years, 11 PGA champions had pre-tournament odds that were +3500 or shorter.
Jimmy Walker (+12500) in 2016 and Phil Mickelson (+25000 in 2021) served as the exceptions to this record. Both of these players achieved their wins during significant points in their careers. Despite being a five-time major champion, Mickelson was still considered a long shot.
Though it’s hard to imagine a surprising, out-of-nowhere victory this week, those who are interested in long shots, there are some players who might be worth exploring. It’s important to tread with caution when considering backing Rasmus Højgaard (+15000).
However, the trouble with placing your bets on Rasmus Højgaard is that Nicolai Højgaard (+30000) might end up outperforming expectations. And conversely, betting on Nicolai Højgaard could pose similar problems. It’s recommended to either bet on both, or avoid betting on them altogether, as choosing one could lead to disappointment.
And then there’s Phil Mickelson (+35000), whose odds are even longer than when he clinched his shocking victory four years ago. His win surprised everyone, critics included.
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