Despite his death in an Israeli airstrike in Lebanon a year ago, images of Hassan Nasrallah, the former leader of Hizbullah, remain widely displayed throughout Baghdad, the capital of Iraq. Images of other Shia militia figures from Iraq, Iran, and Lebanon can also be seen frequently. One commonality each person in those posters shares is the backing of their organizations by Iran, signifying Iran’s substantial impact in the region. However, these posters inadvertently veil a growing dissatisfaction within the Iraqi populace regarding their nation’s affiliation with Iran, especially among younger demographics.
Many in Iraq feared getting entangled in Iran’s battle with Israel and the United States and felt a sense of relief when their government chose to stay neutral. This was evident during the war that ended with a ceasefire in June last year. The militias’ call for rallying at the American embassy during the war had a tepid response. As a result, Iran’s weight across the region has seen a decrease, causing a shift in the once-reliable reliance of Iran on Iraq.
Iran and Iraq, both of who share a border spanning 1,600 kilometers, have seen a fluctuating relationship over the years. Shia religious leaders from both nations have vied for influence among Shia Muslims globally. In the decade of the 1980s, the two countries were in direct conflict, leading to hundreds of thousands of casualty. However, post the fall of Saddam Hussein’s regime in 2003 by American hands, Iraq has served as a platform for Iran to extend its grasp over the region.
Iraq’s economy has thrived, despite the crippling setbacks imposed on Iran’s nuclear program through extensive Western sanctions, and has been one of the few avenues for its struggling neighbor. Iran has long performed manipulative artistry on Iraq’s central bank’s daily dollar auctions to secure hard currency needed for imports, effortlessly bypassing sanctions. A momentous turnaround was witnessed only when American blacklisted Iraqi banks in 2023, causing a significant slowdown in the operation.
Iran’s role in Iraq isn’t merely limited to the economy; it is also a major destination for Iranian exports. Iran pushes Iraqi governmental bodies and ministries to prioritize Iranian goods over others, based on narratives shared by members of Baghdad’s business community. Iran’s most impactful influence, however, has been in the military domain, by supporting militias through its Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.
The rise of the Sunni extremist group, Islamic State, in 2014 prompted Shia religious authorities in Iraq and Iran alike to rally. As an outcome of this, a host of Shia armed factions backed by Iran sprouted in Iraq. These factions played a pivotal role in the fight against the Islamic State. In the process, an opportunity was created for Iran to exercise control over a substantial portion of Iraq’s political and economic affairs.
Militia groups inherited manifold business interests, commanding critical ministries that oversaw oil and metal exports. They even held sway over the supreme court up until recently. Such immense power was brought about majorly due to the efforts of Qassem Suleimani. However, Iran’s iron-grip over the militias started to loosen after Suleimani was eliminated in an American drone strike in 2020.
After Suleimani’s death, the militias had a change of heart. While some decided to align themselves in Iran’s axis of resistance, others diverted their attention to domestic issues. One reason behind this shift was the newfound wealth of Iran’s allies in Iraq, who now had much at stake, and thus sought to avoid external conflict. At the same time, a fresh set of politicians, borne out of anti-government protests in 2020, have become increasingly overt about their opposition to the militias.
The public sentiment against the militias was evidently displayed during Iran’s war against Israel and America only a month ago. Even the staunchest allies of Iran in Iraq were cautious about crossing paths with the US or Israel. The reduction of the IRGC’s top tier during Israel’s twelve-day war, coupled with America’s onslaught on Iran’s nuclear programs, have kindled hopes amongst certain segments in Iraq about a decrease in Iran’s interference in their nation’s politics and economics.
With Iran’s loyalist militias and politicians finding themselves at a loss, there seems to be a void that could potentially foster homegrown political forces. While trust in Iran’s Islamic revolution and the necessity to combat Israel may remain among some, increasing numbers in Iraq are growing dissatisfied with being a pawn in Iran’s hands.
The post Shift in Iraq’s Sentiment Towards Its Iranian Affiliations appeared first on Real News Now.
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