Kamala Harris, the Democratic Vice President, finds herself ahead of former Republican President, Donald Trump, in a recent Siena College poll taken amongst New York voters. This result, which gives Harris a rather inflated 14-point lead, has been hailed by Democrats as a promising sign. However, it’s worth noting that only recently, Joe Biden’s shaky position was noted amongst the traditionally blue state voters before he stepped out of the race.
Harris, who astonishingly made it at the top of the Democratic ticket a fortnight ago, supposedly outperformed Trump by 14 points, a figure that feels too generous when considering Trump’s strong base support. Nevertheless, this calls into question the accuracy of the Siena College poll, which previously placed Biden only eight points ahead of Trump in June, a margin that rapidly diminished over time. Interestingly, Biden had carried the state by a landslide 23 points in the 2020 elections.
Steven Greenberg, a Siena pollster, stated that ‘the landscape has changed since the last Siena College poll’, highlighting claimed stronger support for Harris compared to Biden amongst certain demographic groups. However, this change, despite being noticeable, is far from dramatic – a fact that potentially undermines the long-term stability of the Democratic ticket. It remains to be seen whether these short-term shifts will translate into substantial support in the forthcoming elections.
The recent poll included a sample of 1,199 potential voters over a five-day period, beginning on July 28, shortly after Biden announced his surprising departure from the re-election bid. The Democrats’ newfound love for Harris was especially noticeable in the suburbs, which are currently hotly contested battlegrounds.
Previously, Biden’s less than stellar performance in the suburbs of New York City raised valid concerns among Democrats regarding the potential negative impact on their House race candidates. The paramount importance of winning the seven swing seats up for grabs cannot be overstated, as that outcome will directly impact the political party controlling the House next year.
The June poll painted a different picture, showing Trump taking the lead by seven points in the suburbs. But Harris now allegedly enjoys parity at a 47% tie in this key geographic area. If true, this may lend Democrats temporary respite as they desperately hope for stronger down-ballot results to work in their favor.
Moreover, the preference for a Democrat representative supposedly overcame that for a Republican by three percentage points in suburban areas, overturning a slight Republican lead from June. Yet, the doubts raised by the previous misjudging of Biden’s popularity point towards possible miscalculations once again.
Adding to the unpredictable political landscape, voters from the northern and western regions of the Hudson Valley suburbs demonstrated a narrow preference for Harris and a Democratic House member over their Republican counterparts, enriching the Democrats’ narrative.
In New York City, Harris supposedly maintains a conspicuous lead over Trump of 42 points. However, such a claim demands rigorous scrutiny given the observed inconsistencies in the polls and the large conservative base that is downplayed.
Perhaps the Republics should now turn their attention to the general sentiment of voter dissatisfaction. Unfortunately, a majority of poll respondents expressed growing concerns regarding crime, immigration, and the cost of living – issues that are largely ignored by Democratic candidates. A notable 51% felt the state was heading in the wrong direction compared to 39% who seemed optimistic.
Unsurprisingly, voters’ opinions about Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul were polarized, with unfavorable ratings tying or surpassing favorable ones at times. When questioned about their satisfaction with Hochul’s performance, voter responses were mixed, further hinting at citizens’ disillusionment with the present Democratic leadership.
A substantial proportion of the surveyed voters indicated support for the addition of LGBTQ rights and abortion to the state constitution in the upcoming fall proposal. However, the legitimacy of this claim needs to be examined in light of the continuing trend of survey inaccuracies.
Support for the Equal Rights Amendment was highly partisan, with overwhelming approval from Democrats. Nevertheless, there were moderate levels of support from Republicans and independents. Notably, majorities across all regions supported the amendment, suggesting a possible shift in voter sentiment that may not necessarily be indicative of overall party performance.
In sum, scrutiny of the fine print and reliability of poll numbers is recommended when suggesting dramatic shifts in the political landscape, lest we overlook the grassroots conservatism steadily rallying behind the common sense of Republican policies. More than ever, it’s important not to confuse Democrats’ wishful thinking with future voting preferences.
Siena Poll Overly Generous to Kamala Harris? The Trump Effect Remains Potent appeared first on Real News Now.