In my view, it is undeniable that the current administration has been involved in various negotiations. They have not just been transmitting signals around but have also partaken in in-depth discussions with the Europeans and, seemingly, the U.S as well. There’s a considerable disparity between their public declarations and their actual actions, especially in their private engagements.
While their public stance is frequently decorated with aggressive rhetoric, what they do behind closed doors paints a different picture. They are not just sitting idly but actively trying to strike a deal. This dichotomy between their public face and hidden actions is quite telling of their intent.
There’s a possibility that they might reach an agreement that would satisfy Mr. Trump. As for Mr. Netanyahu, I have my reservations. However, if this continues for an extended period, the rising international and domestic pressures might sway Mr. Netanyahu to approve a temporary truce, especially when casualties increase significantly.
Nonetheless, regardless of the success of their negotiations, I doubt it will secure their long-term stability. Any deal they make will only offer them a temporary respite. I anticipate a significant political upheaval in Iran the day after the deal is made due to the decision of leading Iran into an unnecessary war.
The contentious war was avoidable, hence, the deep resentment. One of their own, Mr. Rezaee, a former commander of the IRGC, recently commented about having advanced knowledge of an imminent Israeli attack, hinting that they had time to move their enriched uranium and other vital assets.
However, his comments, which some might see as imprudent, raise a question: why wasn’t more done to bolster the domestic front? If there was ample knowledge of an impending attack, why were there no measures taken to protect Iranian citizens or at least establish safe shelters for them?
These grievances and skepticism tend to amplify the existing resentment against the regime. For instance, notable women movements in Iran that have successfully challenged the advocacy of forced hijab. Many of these instances of triumph against the regime symbolize the widespread discontent.
This dissatisfaction is also evident in the numerous strikes we’ve witnessed in Iran in recent months. Everyday people are confronting the regime – their opposition might seem uncoordinated, but their collective sentiment is unmistakable. They are tired and want an end to the regime.
Simultaneously, they desire an end to the bombings. It’s crucial to note that there is minimal support for indefinite warfare and the resulting casualties among innocent civilians. The majority seems to be calling for cessation, their voices becoming increasingly louder.
However, cessation will only breed more questions. Once the bombing halts, the people will no doubt demand explanations from the leadership, particularly from Mr. Khamenei. His political reputation, in my opinion, is rapidly dwindling, and his inability to provide convincing responses will only amplify this erosion.
What remains of his regime also stands on shaky ground, and a deal will do little to change that. The dogmatic mindset, antisemitism, rumored anti-Zionist rhetoric, and false promises of victory against Israel are increasingly being criticized and dismissed by the citizens.
Other than this, his regime’s self-aggrandizing claims and promises of war or destruction against Israel, are rapidly losing credibility. All these factors, in conjunction, strike a blow to their legitimacy and believability. Regardless of the outcome of their negotiations, the fact remains that their reign is beset with difficulties.
This narrative of relentless contentiousness, apocalyptic projections, and failed leadership has fueled discontent, and the regime’s influence is gradually waning. Whether they yield a deal or not, the current state of affairs seems unsustainable.
In conclusion, as events unfold, it appears more likely that Mr. Khamenei’s reign, with all its infamous attributes, is nearing an end. His regime’s future appears uncertain and is likely to become a thing of the past soon.
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