Politics is an unpredictable game. It seldom adheres to laid-out plans, taking surprising turns with every new development. Amid recent happenings in the political realm, we’ve seen Democratic bickering shift political discussions from the important to the trivial. However, with Biden stepping back from his pursuit of presidency, the Democrats’ surprising appointment of former Vice President Kamala Harris as their nominee has changed the narrative. One could observe a sigh of relief amongst Democrats, marking an end to their internal squabbles.
In the wake of these developments, Trump solidifies his position as the frontrunner in the upcoming election, thanks to his unwavering following that outshines the shaky Democratic support. Harris’ sudden rise, though, has seen a minor incremental shift in poll numbers favoring the Democrats. Nevertheless, this doesn’t seem to skin Trump’s secure lead; he maintains a 3-point lead over Harris in a recent CNN/SSRS poll.
Perhaps what’s striking about these polls is the shift in demographic support. Harris managed a 9-points improvement with independents and an 8-points improvement with people of color. Furthermore, she has seemingly bridged a 6-points gap with the young voters and women. One might wonder if these shifts indicate anything more than a novelty effect created by Harris’s nomination.
Rather interestingly, Democrats’ faith in Harris appears to be split in half. The same number of Democrats claim their vote to be in favor of Harris as they do against Trump – each exact 50%. This is a stark contrast from when less than four out of ten Democrats declared their vote for Biden back in June. Whether this expresses dissatisfaction with Biden or newfound hopes pegged on Harris remains open for interpretation.
However, it’s essential to remain grounded and not let an illusion of progress cloud our judgment. Even post-Biden’s exit, Trump leads in four out of five public polls with a 2-points average. In the crucial swing states that often dictate the election’s outcome, Trump convincingly leads Harris across Arizona, Pennsylvania, Georgia and Michigan, with Wisconsin hanging in equilibrium.
According to Emerson polling, Harris does show improvement relative to Biden’s slightly dismal numbers. Still, the fact remains that it’s Trump who maintains the lead, with those margins diminishing insignificantly. Can Harris sustain this momentum, or is it merely a temporary spike ignited by the dramatic shift in Democratic dynamics?
Harris’ rise to the ticket might have arrested Democrats’ fall somewhat, pulling back some support lost during the past chaos-filled month. Yet, this change does not yield a decisive advantage. It merely puts a band-aid on the Democrats’ self-inflicted wounds, offering temporary relief at best.
The nomination of Harris presents an intriguing picture of the months leading up to the election. ‘Turnout elections’ could lead to interesting results where the side that mobilizes its supporters better stands on the winning side of the equation. While Trump’s loyal supporters have consistently turned out, it remains to be seen whether Harris can replicate the same among her brand-new follower base.
Let’s not forget, during the 2020 primary, Harris’ campaign petered out before a single vote was cast, indicating a drastic failure. Her political journey is laden with policy decisions that incline towards left ideologies, which might potentially alienate moderate voters driving them towards Trump. How Harris maneuvers her campaign through these rocky terrains will be interesting to observe.
Harris’s tenure as a prosecutor might seem an attractive prospect for some voters. Still, her history that involves a punitive approach towards convictions and her opposition to legislation surrounding police shootings doesn’t sit well with progress-oriented voters. However, Republicans could valorize this account of hers, depicting her as too lenient and contributing to the rising crime rates in California.
Harris’ uphill battle doesn’t end here. She represents Biden’s administration, which bore the brunt of public disapproval in pivotal areas like economy, immigration, and health care. Thus, these grievances could quite possibly be extended towards her, especially when she fails to significantly differentiate herself from her predecessor.
Economy and immigration have always been tough terrains for Democrats, especially since voters trusted Trump significantly more on these crucial issues. Harris is now saddled with the tough responsibility of convincing voters about the administration’s economy and immigration-related policies, particularly when inflation remains 20% higher since she took office.
As far as immigration is concerned, the issue becomes all the more sensitive for Harris. Her past comments advocating illegal border crossing to be considered as a civil offence might not go down well with moderate voters, potentially handing over the issue on a silver platter to Republicans to criticize.
Harris’ role as ‘border czar’ might further complicate the situation. Critics have widely denounced her approach to immigration, and Republicans are all set to capitalize on these inconsistencies. Not to mention, her response to an inquiry about a border visit could lend credence to claims about her lack of experience.
On the abortion front, Harris might present a slight edge over Biden. She’s been a vocal person on the subject, after the 2022 Dobbs decision, but this doesn’t assure her victory. Although anti-abortion measures are unpopular, leveraging this issue to her advantage might be a tough sell.
In conclusion, the replacement of Biden by Harris might serve to ‘reset’ the presidential race back to where it was when Biden’s fitness for the post was under question. It remains a tight contest, but Trump’s unflinching support base and leadership continue to hold the edge against an unproven, inexperienced and dabbling Democratic nominee.
Trump Holds Solid Lead as Democrats Grapple with Harris’ Nominations appeared first on Real News Now.
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