In recent times, U.S. President Trump has represented his actions against Iran as an unbroken victory. The nation is not expected to make any personal sacrifices in the mission to dismantle Iran’s nuclear capabilities, rather, to commend his existing efforts to that end. Trump stated over the weekend that key facilities for nuclear enrichment found in Iran have been thoroughly decimated. Now, he urges Iran, often referred to as the region’s aggressor, to strive for peace. He outlines severe consequences for a refusal, highlighting that future interventions will be far more intense and executed with simpler strategies.
It remains in the realm of possibility that this conflict involving Trump may evolve as he has portrayed. The current Iranian regime is encircled by significant vulnerability. Israel has largely compromised its air defense system, ensuring their aircraft face little hindrance in Iranian airspace. The crippled state of Iranian nuclear facilities is coupled with the loss of paramount atomic scientists and military heads. Its allied militant forces, Hezbollah and Hamas, have also suffered significant setbacks. Its once cherished comrades in Damascus have been ousted, while friends in Russia can hardly extend aid due to their own predicaments.
From such a shaky foundation, the Iranian government could deduce that they are in no position to escalate hostilities with the most powerful military nation in the world. However, such desirable outcomes are not guaranteed. Should Trump’s anticipations not materialize, his conflict could levy immense monetary and human costs on Americans, in addition to jeopardizing nuclear security.
The economic aftermath of Trump’s conflict with Iran will likely be the most observable impact for U.S citizens. Oil prices have surged by over 12 percent since late May, a period when Israel began voicing threats to strike Iranian nuclear locations. An intensifying US-Iran disagreement could drive up America’s energy costs even more. The nightmare scenario involves the Strait of Hormuz, the sole maritime passage linking the Persian Gulf to the open sea. Every day, around 20 million barrels of oil (approximately 20 percent of the global supply) traverse this strait. If Iran is provoked to do so, it could feasibly halt all passage through such a critical waterway.
Despite its feasibility, the likelihood of Iran imposing a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz remains low. Opting for such an approach would essentially damage its own economy, largely reliant on oil exports via the strait. Still, the possibility of causing disruption in the strait gives the Iranian regime its most significant bargaining power against other global forces.
Considering the considerable presence of American military in the region – over 40,000 soldiers stationed on bases and in marine vessels, Iran’s missile reach is a significant concern. It’s entirely reasonable to worry that Iran could respond with greater intensity, the recent strikes on Qatar potentially marking just the beginning of its rebuttal. The sentiment was echoed by Ali Akbar Velayati, an adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who warned countries in the region offering their territory for American forces against Iran could become legitimate targets for counterattacks.
For those concerned about global nuclear security, there’s a real fear that Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weaponry could encourage Saudi Arabia to follow suit. This could lead to a nuclear arms race in the Middle East, thereby increasing the likelihood of future nuclear disasters.
Before the bombings over the weekend, Iran was engaged in discussions over its nuclear initiatives without the US. Iran had agreed to rein in its enrichment of uranium as part of a 2015 deal, which Trump annulled during his first term as President.
Currently, all diplomatic dialogues over Iran’s nuclear ambitions seem abandoned. Following recent events, it’s possible that Iran perceives nuclear weapons as an indispensable part of its defense strategy. The country has signaled its intentions to back out from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which would signal an end to its collaboration with the United Nations on uranium enrichment inspections.
At present, the UN’s nuclear watchdog is uncertain about Iran’s storage location for the highly enriched uranium it has already produced. Iran maintains that it relocated its uranium reserves away from the three locations targeted in Trump’s strikes, prior to their occurrence.
The American and Israeli bombings have considerably weakened Iran’s ability to produce weapons-grade uranium. However, the technical expertise and requisite raw materials for atomic bomb production persist within Iran.
In conclusion, it is impossible to predict with absolute certainty the eventual outcomes of this conflict between America and Iran. What is certain for now is that, at least in the immediate term, America’s security has been compromised by Trump’s recent strikes. Moreover, these actions have introduced additional economic risks while simultaneously attempting to achieve a geopolitical aim that might potentially have been realized through peaceful negotiations.
The post Trump’s Aggressive Stance against Iran: Victory or Calamity? appeared first on Real News Now.
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