Following numerous political upheavals recently, the most recent poll by the New York Times/Siena College presents an array of unprecedented results, apart from the leader of the presidential race. The poll depicts Donald J. Trump leading Kamala Harris by a slim margin, a mere one percentage point, boasting 48 percent to Harris’s 47 among probable voters. Besides the Democratic candidate’s identity change, the close ‘Trump +1’ outcome could have been plucked from any other Times/Siena poll during the period prior to President Biden’s debate debacle.
However, the survey showcases dramatic changes across multiple fronts compared to previous Times-Siena findings, all of which were recorded prior to important milestones. These include the moment Vice President Harris effectively secured her party’s presidential nomination, the occurrence of the Republican convention, and the unfortunate assassination attempt on President Trump. The reversal from a six-point deficit to a one-point lead represents a remarkable turnaround for the Democrats since our last Times/Siena poll.
Without a doubt, these developments complicate the interpretation of recent polls, including this latest one. The survey marks the current state of the race, but it’s premature to assume that this will remain the situation once the dust settles.
President Trump’s popularity is at an all-time high, given that 48 percent of registered voters indicate a positive perception of him. This constitutes a noteworthy increase from the previous 42 percent. It’s noteworthy to applaud that this is Trump’s highest favorability figure in a Times/Siena poll, typically lingering between 39 percent and 45 percent.
Meanwhile, Ms. Harris is registering significant popularity growth, outpacing even President Trump’s gains. Overall, her positive perception has jumped to 46 percent from a previous 36 percent, illustrating a triumphant introduction for her candidacy. Also of note, her favorability score outperforms that of Mr. Biden’s and is a testament to her ascending popularity among voters.
In a broader context, the national political climate appears mildly improved. The proportion of voters who believe the country is on the ‘right track’ has risen to 27 percent, the highest since the midterm elections of 2022. Both Harris and Trump’s high approval ratings have led to a decrease in voters who hold unfavorable views on both candidates to a minimal 8 percent, a significant drop from 20 percent in earlier polls.
Yet, with such dramatic changes in voters’ perceptions of the candidates, it isn’t wise to prematurely assume that this marginally positive result for Trump suggests a return to a pre-debate status quo. Current developments shall dictate hotly contested elections result, although this remains to be seen in due course.
Typically, Trump’s popularity surge over the past month emulates a classic ‘convention bounce,’ potentially coupled with added goodwill following the assassination attempt. While it’s common for such surges to diminish over time, they often do not entirely evaporate, leaving a lasting impact.
The dramatic twist involving Ms. Harris over the past week isn’t something we are accustomed to observing. Her momentum may carry forward for some time, but predicting what lies beyond is fraught with uncertainty. The public’s response to her, whether it be to her speeches or the potential criticisms hurled her way, is something to keep a keen eye on in the coming weeks.
But let’s tally a win for the Democratic image retouch, as an incredible 87 percent of voters approve of Mr. Biden’s decision to step aside in the presidential race, leaving room for new leadership. A solid approval of this kind is practically unheard of in Times/Siena polls.
Moreover, Democrats appear unified around Kamala. The majority suggest the party should back Harris for the presidency, in comparison to a minimal 14 percent who advocate for another candidate. A larger faction, 27 percent, proposes the party should foster a competitive nominating process. Yet, an overwhelming 70 percent urge to rally behind Harris and hasten her nomination – proving that she is indeed a preferred option.
A closer look at the demographics showcases Harris’s impressive traction among younger (18 to 29 years) and Hispanic voters – a feat Mr. Biden has yet to achieve this year. However, she lacks the same appeal with white working-class voters and those over 65, a demographic where Biden outperformed in previous Times/Siena polls. Yet, these results support the notion that demographics are undergoing a significant shift, as expected given the contrast between Harris, a 50s-aged Black woman with Indian ancestry from California, and Biden, a white male in his 80s from Scranton, Pennsylvania.
Lastly, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., an independent, could potentially tip the scales in Harris’s favor, as seen when all minor-party candidates were included in the survey. With Kennedy capturing 5 percent of the votes, the race between Harris and Trump became even more competitive. While Trump led the two-way race, he didn’t fare as well when multiple candidates were taken into account due to the likelihood of Kennedy drawing voters from his pool.
Trump’s Milestone in Popularity: Leads Harris in Recent Polls appeared first on Real News Now.
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