Following his stint at the White House, President Donald Trump has touted the cessation of an ambiguous number of wars – six or seven is anyone’s guess – and has fostered a rather shaky peace in Ukraine. A notable omission in Trump’s second-term foreign agenda has been North Korea, a glaring blip in the radar. This, despite Trump’s highly individualized approach to diplomacy with North Korea, characterized by meetings with Kim Jong Un during his initial tenure.
Monday could present an opportunity for Trump to diverge and shift his attention to North Korea, given that South Korea’s newly elected President Lee Jae Myung is making a visit to the White House. Lee Jae Myung, known for his proclivity towards negotiations with North Korea, could instigate a pertinent conversation. It’s common knowledge that Trump’s appetite for news-making events and ‘big-ticket’ diplomacy is large.
Trump’s peculiar affection for Kim was utterly conspicuous during their previous face-to-face encounters. In what could only be defined as bizarre diplomacy, Trump went as far as suggesting that he and the dictator were falling in love. As the two potentially reunite, they could be faced with a bolder Kim, given the bolstering of North Korea’s position since their last rendezvous.
North Korea, among the world’s most penalized and hermit nations, has successfully bartered into a profitable alliance with Russia. Reports detail that North Korea has deployed upwards of 10,000 soldiers and weapons supplies, in service of Moscow’s incursion into Ukraine. This partnership has infused some wind in the sails of the otherwise economically suffocated nation.
As Trump was assuming office, South Korea was grappling with a leadership transition, triggered by the impeachment of its conservative leader for a brief bout of martial law imposition. Indeed, an awkward time for such a shift in power. Nevertheless, Lee Jae Myung ascended to power in June and even managed to lock in a deal akin to other U.S. allies regarding tariffs, despite the political chaos.
It seems that Lee, a past labor attorney, might align more with Trump on certain issues than South Korea’s conservative bloc, despite his origins from the left. For instance, both Lee and Trump have commented in the past, albeit with varying degrees of seriousness, about the considerable presence of the U.S. military in South Korea; a staggering 28,500 U.S. soldiers are currently stationed there.
Notwithstanding these shared views, Lee has taken steps to maintain stability since taking up the mantle. Chief among these, he has pressed ahead with joint U.S.-South Korea military exercises, much to North Korea’s ire. He’s aiming for the kind of consistency that can quell any rumblings of concern among its populace.
In a profoundly symbolic measure, Lee journeyed to Japan, prior to his U.S. visit, restating his endorsement to the tripartite alliance – a move receiving both criticism and praise from the left side of South Korea, given its historical bone of contention with Japan over colonial disputes.
His official visit to the United States is set amidst escalating tensions on the Korean peninsula, where North Korea recently test-launched a couple of novel air-defense missiles. Only a few days earlier, South Korean forces discharged warning shots in response to a fleeting intrusion by several North Korean military personnel across the heavily fortified boundary that separates the two Korean states.
Moreover, North Korea, remains stubborn in its refusal to dismantle its nuclear infrastructure. If anything, the attacks spearheaded by the U.S. and Israel on Iran’s sensitive facilities has only hardened its resolve. This has added an extra challenging layer to the inevitably complex diplomatic dealings with the nation.
So far this year, Trump and the Defense Secretary have deviated from conventional U.S. policy by referring to North Korea as a nuclear power – a title typically reserved for recognized global players. Whether this admission concedes North Korea’s entitlement to nuclear weapons remains questionable though.
President Lee, meanwhile, has proposed a three-fold strategy towards North Korea’s nuclear scheme: freezing the nuclear shipments, downsizing the operations, and ultimately, disassembling Pyongyang’s nuclear facilities. However, considering North Korea’s intransigent nuclear stance, Lee’s proposal seems more like a diplomatic overture than a tangible solution.
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